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Currencies | Treasury Rates | Calculators | My Watchlist | My Portfolio
| CENTURY BANC -ANVTG | (NSDQ: CNBKA)Add to My Watchlist |
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| Tue, Jul 14, 2009 | ||
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Century Bancorp (CNBKA) Approves 300K Stock Buyback Plan
Visit StreetInsider.com at http://www.streetinsider.com/news.php?st=p&id=4793978 for the full story.
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StreetInsider
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| Thu, Dec 18, 2008 | ||
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Century Bancorp (CNBKA) Receives Preliminary Approval for $30 Million From TARP
Visit StreetInsider.com at http://www.streetinsider.com/news.php?st=p&id=4251567 for the full story.
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StreetInsider
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| Thu, Oct 16, 2008 | ||
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New Dividend Stock Coverage (CAW, CNBKA, FINL)
We are starting coverage of the following dividend-paying stocks:CAW, CNBKA, FINL.
CCA Industries (CAW) - This company manufactures and distributes health and beauty aid products. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Century Bancorp (CNBKA) - This company provides banking services to commercial enterprises, state and local governments and agencies, [...]
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Dividend Stocks - Th...
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| Tue, Oct 14, 2008 | ||
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Century Bancorp (CNBKA) Reports Q3 Earnings; Approves Quarterly Dividend on Class A & B Shares
Visit StreetInsider.com at http://www.streetinsider.com/news.php?st=p&id=4066326 for the full story.
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StreetInsider
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| Tue, Oct 14, 2008 | ||
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This Week: Whew! - Wall Street Greek | |
| Mon, Apr 07, 2008 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Yesterday's News
Our Wall Street Week Ahead primer has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.
Resilience defined last week's trading activity, as it completely defied extremely poor news flow. Well-schooled students of the market understood the reason why, but many others were still dumbfounded. An often forgotten fact of market dynamics is that it leads economic activity. The market is a vast discounting factor, seeking to adjust and anticipate the future with each new bit of arriving information. So yesterday's news was in fact also figuratively yesterday's news. Thus, the Dow Industrials rose 3.2%, the S&P 500 Index climbed 4.2% and the Nasdaq soared 4.9%. This all occurred while the job market posted its third consecutive month of erosion (-80K jobs) and unemployment increased to 5.1%.
A Revelation
Ben Bernanke came clean this past week, admitting the economy might be in store for economic "contraction." Little by little, the federal government is working its way toward admitting the truth. But, in putting off reference to the "R" word, we are sure the government believes it is protecting Americans from self-fulfilled prophecy. It seems George Bush and crew believes we can’t handle the truth, which would be that recession is likely. The Week Ahead An interesting mix of economic data is set for release this week, but the market seems capable of handling anything at this point. Monday Entering recession's gate, and with unemployment rising and consumer stresses intense, there’s widespread concern about the consumer credit situation. On Monday, the monthly change in consumer credit will offer some insight into just that. Perhaps a sign of tightening lending standards, or borrowers’ limited-out status, consumer credit is only seen increasing by $5.3 billion in February, compared to a rise of $6.9 billion in January. On the international scene, the OECD is expected to issue an economic survey on Japan. Also, the Treasury Secretary will address a group in Miami, and the wire might repeat an important line or two from sunny Florida. Earnings season official kicks off this week with the report of Alcoa ( Tuesday We will be closely attuned to the weekly same-store sales report from the International Council of Shopping Centers, since last week’s report showed growth of just 0.5%, year-to-year. That marked a drop in growth rate from the week before level of 1.0%. The rate of change has been notable, and may portend a pending decrease in year-over-year sales, which makes perfect sense in economic "contraction." The Federal Open Market Committee will release its meeting minutes from its March get together, through which it cut the fed funds rate by 75 basis points. There were a whole lot of other important actions the Fed took that same week, and since, so the minutes should make for interesting reading, if not a good cure for insomnia. The Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release, and Barron's wrote that expectations point toward a decrease of 1% or so. Keeping with housing, the Senate will hold a procedural vote on a housing bill Tuesday. While watching Washington, you'll likely catch wind of General Petraeus' testimony to Congress on Iraq. Tuesday's earnings reports include Layne Christensen ( Wednesday The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its regular take on mortgage activity. Originations backed up last week, after the prior week's significant increase. Mortgages could benefit again in the current reporting period, because of the government's increasing of the limits on conforming loans. Wholesale inventories will be reported against expectations for a 0.5% increase in February. The result will compare against a rise of 0.8% in January. The Fed goes on parade again this week, with Ben Bernanke addressing one group and rate-cut dissenter Richard Fisher meeting another. The House Financial Services Committee will be busy with legislation related to mortgages, housing and the economy. In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady. Finally, the EIA publishes its regular Petroleum Status Report, and it matters now. Wednesday's corporate earning schedule includes Bed, Bath & Beyond ( Thursday Retailers will begin reporting monthly chain store sales for March on Thursday, providing an opportunity for retailers to adjust their earnings guidance for the analyst community. Thus, you may see retail shares decline in the week ahead, as all indications are that recent sales have tailed off. For those of you concerned about the euro/dollar exchange rate, an event this week should play a key role in the direction of the currencies. The European Central Bank is set to meet, after which it will announce its latest decision on interest rates. Dollar enthusiasts should hope the ECB acts upon recent euro zone leadership concerns, and cut rates. However, business confidence readings from important European national markets offer no reason for the ECB to back off of its hawkish concerns. The ECB has not moved on rates this year. However, the Bank of England is scheduled to make an announcement as well, and economists are looking for a rate cut of a quarter point there, to 5%. Because of the weakening dollar, and softening overall domestic demand for goods, including imports, the trade deficit has narrowed this year. We expect that trend to continue with the International Trade Report for February. Bloomberg’s consensus sees the trade deficit narrowing to $57.5 billion, from $58.2 billion in January. Weekly initial jobless claims are expected to back off of their break of 400K last week, easing to a still concerning 386K. The U.S. budget balance likely improved $10 billion in March, according to Barron's, bringing the deficit down to an estimated $85 billion. Both Bernanke and Paulson are scheduled to make appearances on Thursday, so expect to see more sidewinding. Thursday's earnings reports include Genentech ( Friday Bloomberg's survey indicates that Friday’s Import/Export Prices Report is expected to show that inflation and higher oil prices drove a 1.8% import price increase in March. The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for April is expected to measure 68.0, down from 70.5 in March. The Group of Seven finance ministers meets in Washington, where the dollar dive is probably tops on the agenda. Friday's earnings reports will originate from Fastenal ( Subscribe to our email delivery service using the tab below this article at the site. We respect your privacy and will never share your information with any third party except when required to by law. Please see our disclosure at Wall Street Greek. 
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| Sun, Jan 13, 2008 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead: Gauging "Substantive Action"
The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.
After last week’s unsettling trading that led the Dow Jones Industrials down 1.5%, the Nasdaq off 2.6% and S&P 500 Index 0.75% lower, investors are left trying to gauge what exactly Fed Chief Ben Bernanke meant by “substantive action” during a market-moving speech last week. Quoting the Chairman word for word, he said “We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth.” Bernanke’s Fed has come under scrutiny, and been criticized as being behind the curve regarding its comprehension of the severity of economic conditions. Through most of last year, the group emphasized its predominant concern for inflation over economic growth. The group shifted back and forth from August through December, leading the stock market on a roller coaster ride as it contemplated economic turmoil without a sure-footed Fed. Mixed messages from Fed representatives didn’t help matters much, as regional Fed presidents appeared before public audience conveying very different messages, especially in December. Ben finally appears to be properly captaining his ship though, and the message last week from Fed representatives Plosser, Rosengren, Mishkin and Bernanke was one in the same. Economic growth is the focus of attention based on concern about wavering consumer sentiment and spending. Wall Street Greek had argued that Bernanke’s leadership was lacking because of the mixed messages that he allowed to pervade the marketplace, and also because of his leadership by consensus that seemed to leave the Fed without leadership at all. Mr. Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is well-known for his own work and a white paper produced with fellow Fed-head Frederic Mishkin. Within this important paper, Bernanke and Mishkin discuss inflation targeting as a framework for central bank governance, not a rule. We understand the importance of transparency and inflation targeting after thoroughly reading through this early work. After going over the piece, it seems clear to us that this targeting theory will not preclude Bernanke’s Fed from decisive and strong action to head off recession. Mishkin, a stable rock Bernanke relies on, is also well-known for his work including the theoretical usage of sharp, temporary rate cuts in limiting economic deterioration, and in limiting the amount of total rate reduction necessary to stave off recession or limit its tenure. The Greek suspects this dynamic duo would gain special satisfaction from seeing their theories put into practical use, especially if the result is as amicable as they expect. If things did play out well, there’s no doubt that this highly criticized Fed Chief would be raised from goat to hero, and he is well-aware of this. Another reason Ben could act in unprecedented manner (read cutting rates 100 points or more in short time) is the fact that he’s proven malleable, in our view. In August of 2007, while under intense pressure from the administration, Congress and market participants, he changed his tune in their favor. Then, just weeks after telling the market he was shifting to a neutral rate bias, Bernanke cut interest rates another quarter point in December on market pressure. Well, the pressure has never been as high as it is currently for significant Fed action, so that’s what should ensue. At the same, we agree that significant Fed action is exactly what is needed now. Bernanke and Mishkin’s white paper on inflation targeting, and other works that also cover the topic of political pressure and conflicts of interest seem to point the Fed in a direction of independence. However, when the pressure is as intense as it is now from market pundits and high ranking political officials, it could prove awfully difficult for any man to not succumb to. Real life offers incalculable intangibles that often lead men in different directions than they expected they would move in theory. What’s he waiting for then… The Federal Open Market Committee is not scheduled to next meet until January 29-30, which coincidentally falls a day after President Bush’s last State of the Union Address. The president is expected to offer Congress his own stimulus plan that night in very public fashion before the nation. Political ramifications in doing so should benefit the next Republican nominee. Ben would also have a nice opportunity before or on Thursday of this week, when he’s scheduled to speak before the House Budget Committee on nothing other than the near-term economic outlook. In this very political year, we suspect President Bush has asked Bernanke to hold off until he returns from the Middle East, so he can enjoy a photo opp for the sake of the party, not to mention his own legacy. Luck has it that the president will be concluding his Mid-East trip on the 16th of the month, according to the public schedule, which does not include a likely stopover in Iraq for obvious reasons. It seems the conservative gentlemen of the Fed are likely to at least cut rates 50 basis points in the near future. They have signaled at least that, so they had better. They could follow up this action with a near-term similar cut before the March meeting. We believe a sharp cut is the exact medicine the economy and stock market need now. A sharp reduction could be seen by some as an inflation threat that could drive long-term rates higher. However, we expect the shock of the action would raise concern in the market that things could be worse than thought. If this happens, while the spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields could widen, we expect long-term rates would still fall. This could be perfect medicine for the mortgage market by allowing burdened borrowers more opportunity to renegotiate into more amicable loans. We believe this would directly treat the illness, not the symptoms, and thus better solve the problem within credit markets. Market-Moving Event Schedule: Monday The North American International Auto Show kicks off on Monday, and we suspect fuel efficient and alternative fuel vehicle designs will be in focus considering gasoline prices near $3. Otherwise, the week starts out quiet on the economic front, with no data releases scheduled. Despite last week’s symbolic start to earnings season with the report from Alcoa ( The day’s most notable earnings releases include reports from Genentech ( Tuesday Apple’s Macworld Conference & Expo kicks off with CEO Steve Jobs’ keynote address. Past conferences have introduced some of Apple’s ( Mitt Romney hopes to launch a comeback in the Michigan Republican primary election. Michigan is his birthplace and the state his father ran as a multiple-term governor. Michigan and Saturday’s primary in South Carolina should shed further light on who might take the lead in these very tight primary races for both parties. Bright and early on Tuesday morning, the International Council of Shopping Centers - UBS will issue its weekly retail same-store sales report. Last week’s data showed sales growth dipped to just 1.9%, continuing a trend that has illustrated intensifying consumer softness throughout the past 12 months. At 8:30 on Tuesday, the Census Bureau is scheduled to release the December retail sales figure. Reuters reports economist expectations for a slight 0.1% rise month-to-month, versus November’s 1.2% increase. Bloomberg indicates no expected change, with a 0.1% expected decline if auto sales are excluded. Wall Street Greek expects a soft sales rate as well, as December was a relatively poor sales month outside of the period just before and after Christmas. According to Reuters, the scheduled Producer Price Index (PPI) report for the month of December is expected to show an increase of 0.2% month-to-month. Core PPI, which excludes fluctuations of volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 0.1%. In November, the core figure increased 0.4%, raising inflation concerns. This report and the Consumer Price Index slated for later in the week are very important to the Federal Reserve. The Fed has two key government mandates, maintaining full employment and price stability. So, if the PPI and especially the CPI show inflation running high, the stock market will grow concerned that it might stop the Fed from taking expansionary economic measures (read cutting interest rates). At 10:00 a.m. Tuesday, the Census Bureau releases business inventories data for November. According to Reuters, economists are looking for an increase of 0.4% in inventories. This figure becomes most important when compared to sales. If inventories have risen because of sales decline, it reflects poorly on the health of the economy. This looks to be the reason behind the increase this time around, in our view. January’s Empire State Manufacturing Index is due for release Tuesday morning at 8:30. Last month offered disappointing measures from both the New York and Philadelphia area markets, while the Chicago Fed reported a still healthy manufacturing environment. Bloomberg notes a consensus view for a soft reading of 9.75 on this metric. Earnings season picks up steam on Tuesday with headline reports from Citigroup ( The rest of the earnings schedule includes AEP Industries ( Wednesday On Wednesday, possibly the entire free world will be anticipating the release of the Consumer Price Index for December. Reuters consensus expects a 0.2% month-to-month increase in both the headline and core growth. Remember, The Greek says both figures are important. We cannot discount increases in food and energy prices any longer as they are no longer seasonal issues, but secular in nature, and will impact pricing across much of the broader product spectrum as a result. Any number hotter than the forecast figure here will light a sell-signal-fire for the market. The Mortgage Bankers Association will release its weekly Purchase Applications mortgage report on Wednesday as usual. Last week, applications soared on lower mortgage rates that allowed a good deal of borrowers an opportunity to refinance out of troublesome loans. At 9:15 AM, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to report December Industrial Production, and Bloomberg’s consensus is looking for a 0.2% decrease month-to-month. Capacity utilization is seen at 81.2%, down from 81.5% in November, a trend consistent with a deteriorating economy. The Treasury is scheduled to report net foreign purchases of U.S. securities in the month of November. Declining U.S. interest rates are a turn-off for sovereign funds that have other options to choose from besides those in the U.S. China has already threatened to diversify away from U.S. treasuries due to the falling dollar and treasury yields. At 2:00 PM, the Fed releases the Beige Book, its anecdotal report on economic conditions around the country. Also, the National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index Wednesday. Ara Hovnanian, CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises (
Wednesday also brings the regular EIA Petroleum Status Report, which over the past two weeks has shown price supporting draws from inventory. Despite these flows, we continue to see economic deterioration as the main driver of oil price weakness in the near-term. Besides this, warmer weather in the Northeast offers near-term supply relief for oil and heating oil inventory. At Detroit’s Auto Analysts of New York Conference, major automakers including GM ( The remainder of the earnings schedule includes ASML Holdings NV ( Thursday As discussed in our prelude, Fed Chairman Bernanke makes his way to Capitol Hill to discuss the economic outlook before the House Budget Committee on this day. Thursday also brings the regular Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, with Bloomberg’s consensus looking for 335K new claim benefits filers for the week ended January 12. Unemployment jumped up to 5.0% at last check, and we expect retail and other consumer related softness to continue to drive a rising trend. At 8:30, December Housing Starts are seen measuring 1.14 million, down from 1.19 million in November. It’ll be interesting to see how accurate Hovnanian’s account for the month proves to be. At 10:00, the Philadelphia Fed Index is expected to post a sour regional business conditions reading of negative 1.3. Finally, the EIA Natural Gas Report is due at 10:30. A handful of key earnings reports should grab the market’s attention on Thursday, including news from Merrill Lynch ( Friday The bond market closes at 2 p.m. on Friday, ahead of Martin Luther King Day. The stock market is open all day, and two important economic reports are set for release. At 10:00 a.m., the Conference Board reports Leading Indicators for December, with Bloomberg’s surveyed economists seeing a 0.1% month-to-month deterioration. This compares to a 0.4% decline in November, again consistent with economic softening. Also at 10:00, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment figure for the month of January is seen at 74.7, compared to 75.5 in December. Earnings reports to close out the week include General Electric ( We hope you found value in this week’s copy of “The Greek’s Week Ahead” and look forward to providing your daily insight at Wall Street Greek throughout the week. Help us grow our grass roots effort by clicking the small envelope at the bottom of this article and sending notice to your friends about the Wall Street Greek value add. Receive Wall Street Greek FREE via email by subscribing here. (disclosure) 
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Week Ahead: Contemplating "Substantive Action"
The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.
After last week’s unsettling trading that led the Dow Jones Industrials down 1.5%, the Nasdaq off 2.6% and S&P 500 Index 0.75% lower, investors are left trying to gauge what exactly Fed Chief Ben Bernanke meant by “substantive action” during a market-moving speech last week. Quoting the Chairman word for word, he said “We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth.” Bernanke’s Fed has come under scrutiny, and been criticized as being behind the curve regarding its comprehension of the severity of economic conditions. Through most of last year, the group emphasized its predominant concern for inflation over economic growth. The group shifted back and forth from August through December, leading the stock market on a roller coaster ride as it contemplated economic turmoil without a sure-footed Fed. Mixed messages from Fed representatives didn’t help matters much, as regional Fed presidents appeared before public audience conveying very different messages, especially in December. Ben finally appears to be properly captaining his ship though, and the message last week from Fed representatives Plosser, Rosengren, Mishkin and Bernanke was one in the same. Economic growth is the focus of attention based on concern about wavering consumer sentiment and spending. Wall Street Greek had argued that Bernanke’s leadership was lacking because of the mixed messages that he allowed to pervade the marketplace, and also because of his leadership by consensus that seemed to leave the Fed without leadership at all. Mr. Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is well-known for his own work and a white paper produced with fellow Fed-head Frederic Mishkin. Within this important paper, Bernanke and Mishkin discuss inflation targeting as a framework for central bank governance, not a rule. We understand the importance of transparency and inflation targeting after thoroughly reading through this early work. After going over the piece, it seems clear to us that this targeting theory will not preclude Bernanke’s Fed from decisive and strong action to head off recession. Mishkin, a stable rock Bernanke relies on, is also well-known for his work including the theoretical usage of sharp, temporary rate cuts in limiting economic deterioration, and in limiting the amount of total rate reduction necessary to stave off recession or limit its tenure. The Greek suspects this dynamic duo would gain special satisfaction from seeing their theories put into practical use, especially if the result is as amicable as they expect. If things did play out well, there’s no doubt that this highly criticized Fed Chief would be raised from goat to hero, and he is well-aware of this. Another reason Ben could act in unprecedented manner (read cutting rates 100 points or more in short time) is the fact that he’s proven malleable, in our view. In August of 2007, while under intense pressure from the administration, Congress and market participants, he changed his tune in their favor. Then, just weeks after telling the market he was shifting to a neutral rate bias, Bernanke cut interest rates another quarter point in December on market pressure. Well, the pressure has never been as high as it is currently for significant Fed action, so that’s what should ensue. At the same, we agree that significant Fed action is exactly what is needed now. Bernanke and Mishkin’s white paper on inflation targeting, and other works that also cover the topic of political pressure and conflicts of interest seem to point the Fed in a direction of independence. However, when the pressure is as intense as it is now from market pundits and high ranking political officials, it could prove awfully difficult for any man to not succumb to. Real life offers incalculable intangibles that often lead men in different directions than they expected they would move in theory. What’s he waiting for then… The Federal Open Market Committee is not scheduled to next meet until January 29-30, which coincidentally falls a day after President Bush’s last State of the Union Address. The president is expected to offer Congress his own stimulus plan that night in very public fashion before the nation. Political ramifications in doing so should benefit the next Republican nominee. Ben would also have a nice opportunity before or on Thursday of this week, when he’s scheduled to speak before the House Budget Committee on nothing other than the near-term economic outlook. In this very political year, we suspect President Bush has asked Bernanke to hold off until he returns from the Middle East, so he can enjoy a photo opp for the sake of the party, not to mention his own legacy. Luck has it that the president will be concluding his Mid-East trip on the 16th of the month, according to the public schedule, which does not include a likely stopover in Iraq for obvious reasons. It seems the conservative gentlemen of the Fed are likely to at least cut rates 50 basis points in the near future. They have signaled at least that, so they had better. They could follow up this action with a near-term similar cut before the March meeting. We believe a sharp cut is the exact medicine the economy and stock market need now. A sharp reduction could be seen by some as an inflation threat that could drive long-term rates higher. However, we expect the shock of the action would raise concern in the market that things could be worse than thought. If this happens, while the spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields could widen, we expect long-term rates would still fall. This could be perfect medicine for the mortgage market by allowing burdened borrowers more opportunity to renegotiate into more amicable loans. We believe this would directly treat the illness, not the symptoms, and thus better solve the problem within credit markets. Market-Moving Event Schedule: Monday The North American International Auto Show kicks off on Monday, and we suspect fuel efficient and alternative fuel vehicle designs will be in focus considering gasoline prices near $3. Otherwise, the week starts out quiet on the economic front, with no data releases scheduled. Despite last week’s symbolic start to earnings season with the report from Alcoa ( The day’s most notable earnings releases include reports from Genentech ( Tuesday Apple’s Macworld Conference & Expo kicks off with CEO Steve Jobs’ keynote address. Past conferences have introduced some of Apple’s ( Mitt Romney hopes to launch a comeback in the Michigan Republican primary election. Michigan is his birthplace and the state his father ran as a multiple-term governor. Michigan and Saturday’s primary in South Carolina should shed further light on who might take the lead in these very tight primary races for both parties. Bright and early on Tuesday morning, the International Council of Shopping Centers - UBS will issue its weekly retail same-store sales report. Last week’s data showed sales growth dipped to just 1.9%, continuing a trend that has illustrated intensifying consumer softness throughout the past 12 months. At 8:30 on Tuesday, the Census Bureau is scheduled to release the December retail sales figure. Reuters reports economist expectations for a slight 0.1% rise month-to-month, versus November’s 1.2% increase. Bloomberg indicates no expected change, with a 0.1% expected decline if auto sales are excluded. Wall Street Greek expects a soft sales rate as well, as December was a relatively poor sales month outside of the period just before and after Christmas. According to Reuters, the scheduled Producer Price Index (PPI) report for the month of December is expected to show an increase of 0.2% month-to-month. Core PPI, which excludes fluctuations of volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 0.1%. In November, the core figure increased 0.4%, raising inflation concerns. This report and the Consumer Price Index slated for later in the week are very important to the Federal Reserve. The Fed has two key government mandates, maintaining full employment and price stability. So, if the PPI and especially the CPI show inflation running high, the stock market will grow concerned that it might stop the Fed from taking expansionary economic measures (read cutting interest rates). At 10:00 a.m. Tuesday, the Census Bureau releases business inventories data for November. According to Reuters, economists are looking for an increase of 0.4% in inventories. This figure becomes most important when compared to sales. If inventories have risen because of sales decline, it reflects poorly on the health of the economy. This looks to be the reason behind the increase this time around, in our view. January’s Empire State Manufacturing Index is due for release Tuesday morning at 8:30. Last month offered disappointing measures from both the New York and Philadelphia area markets, while the Chicago Fed reported a still healthy manufacturing environment. Bloomberg notes a consensus view for a soft reading of 9.75 on this metric. Earnings season picks up steam on Tuesday with headline reports from Citigroup ( The rest of the earnings schedule includes AEP Industries ( Wednesday On Wednesday, possibly the entire free world will be anticipating the release of the Consumer Price Index for December. Reuters consensus expects a 0.2% month-to-month increase in both the headline and core growth. Remember, The Greek says both figures are important. We cannot discount increases in food and energy prices any longer as they are no longer seasonal issues, but secular in nature, and will impact pricing across much of the broader product spectrum as a result. Any number hotter than the forecast figure here will light a sell-signal-fire for the market. The Mortgage Bankers Association will release its weekly Purchase Applications mortgage report on Wednesday as usual. Last week, applications soared on lower mortgage rates that allowed a good deal of borrowers an opportunity to refinance out of troublesome loans. At 9:15 AM, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to report December Industrial Production, and Bloomberg’s consensus is looking for a 0.2% decrease month-to-month. Capacity utilization is seen at 81.2%, down from 81.5% in November, a trend consistent with a deteriorating economy. The Treasury is scheduled to report net foreign purchases of U.S. securities in the month of November. Declining U.S. interest rates are a turn-off for sovereign funds that have other options to choose from besides those in the U.S. China has already threatened to diversify away from U.S. treasuries due to the falling dollar and treasury yields. At 2:00 PM, the Fed releases the Beige Book, its anecdotal report on economic conditions around the country. Also, the National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index Wednesday. Ara Hovnanian, CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises (
Wednesday also brings the regular EIA Petroleum Status Report, which over the past two weeks has shown price supporting draws from inventory. Despite these flows, we continue to see economic deterioration as the main driver of oil price weakness in the near-term. Besides this, warmer weather in the Northeast offers near-term supply relief for oil and heating oil inventory. At Detroit’s Auto Analysts of New York Conference, major automakers including GM ( The remainder of the earnings schedule includes ASML Holdings NV ( Thursday As discussed in our prelude, Fed Chairman Bernanke makes his way to Capitol Hill to discuss the economic outlook before the House Budget Committee on this day. Thursday also brings the regular Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, with Bloomberg’s consensus looking for 335K new claim benefits filers for the week ended January 12. Unemployment jumped up to 5.0% at last check, and we expect retail and other consumer related softness to continue to drive a rising trend. At 8:30, December Housing Starts are seen measuring 1.14 million, down from 1.19 million in November. It’ll be interesting to see how accurate Hovnanian’s account for the month proves to be. At 10:00, the Philadelphia Fed Index is expected to post a sour regional business conditions reading of negative 1.3. Finally, the EIA Natural Gas Report is due at 10:30. A handful of key earnings reports should grab the market’s attention on Thursday, including news from Merrill Lynch ( Friday The bond market closes at 2 p.m. on Friday, ahead of Martin Luther King Day. The stock market is open all day, and two important economic reports are set for release. At 10:00 a.m., the Conference Board reports Leading Indicators for December, with Bloomberg’s surveyed economists seeing a 0.1% month-to-month deterioration. This compares to a 0.4% decline in November, again consistent with economic softening. Also at 10:00, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment figure for the month of January is seen at 74.7, compared to 75.5 in December. Earnings reports to close out the week include General Electric ( We hope you found value in this week’s copy of “The Greek’s Week Ahead” and look forward to providing your daily insight at Wall Street Greek throughout the week. Help us grow our grass roots effort by clicking the small envelope at the bottom of this article and sending notice to your friends about the Wall Street Greek value add. Receive Wall Street Greek FREE via email by subscribing here. (disclosure)
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| Sun, Oct 07, 2007 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Fed Follow Through Matters
The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week. Whether you are Tiger Woods, Jimmy Rollins or Benjamin Bernanke, follow through matters. Woods' discipline gets him on the green consistently, while Rollin's pure will and sweet stroke got him to first base in the clutch moments this year. The heat is on Ben now to follow through with what he does best. When the Fed cut its target rate by 50 basis points in September, it did more than just satisfy the credit market's immediate crisis of confidence and demand for liquidity, it set expectations as well. While the Wall Street Greek has warned as early as the day of the Fed action, that the Fed move would be one and done, we believe the market is counting on something more. After having grown accustomed to the style of the since published Alan Greenspan, the market cannot help but expect ongoing rate reductions as follow through to the initial medicine inducing sharp cut. Expectations for further rate reduction have surely declined since Friday's revision of the August nonfarm payroll data, where job additions proved to measure 89,000, versus the initial estimate for a decline of 4,000 of the nation's employed. However, your favorite Greek still believes equity prices have a good deal of expectation built into them for rate cut follow through. So, while the current rally may last another week, or three, it will have to meet its maker ominously on Halloween, when the Federal Open Market Committee issues its next policy decision and statement. Now, let's take a look at this week's market-moving event schedule. The Week Ahead... Columbus Day brings no break for the stock market, while fixed income markets are closed on Monday . Markets in Japan and Canada are also shut down to begin the week. However, mainland Chinese markets reopen trading for the first time in a week. In this regard, we almost named this edition "Deja Moo Shu," as this past February's Asian market turmoil also occurred after a week's hiatus. Recall, February's China market crash followed the weeklong celebration of Chinese New Year. A slew of bearish data and news reached the U.S. market during China's time off in February, and when markets reopened, though two days into that trading week, Chinese markets retreated. Back then, the Wall Street Greek presciently warned of Chinese share risk in our issue, " The Greek's Week Ahead - Emerging Market Glam," just two days prior to the event, and then again the day before it occurred. Had the nonfarm payroll additions not presented such a favorable result, and August revision on Friday, we would have anticipated a similar impact to Chinese markets this week. As it stands now, Asian equities seem poised to make yet another great bubble building move higher. While earnings season officially kicks off on Tuesday, Monday brings an important report from Yum! Brands ( Tuesday's news slate begins with the 7:45 a.m. EDT Weekly Same-Store Sales Report from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Last week's data indicated no change in sales on a week-to-week basis, while transaction proceeds rose 2.7% over the prior year period. On the surface of it 2.7% seems like decent growth, but comparable results were running hotter a year ago and even earlier this year. At 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its September FOMC Policy meeting. The market will likely be keen to discover the details of the meeting's discussion, as it could reveal future action or bias. We expect the Fed had already decided to wait on data before acting again, and after Friday's Employment Situation Report, we believe the Fed is highly unlikely to reduce rates further in October. The Fed will also release the minutes from its August 16 conference call, through which it initially decided to act upon the discount rate. The August notes will be missing a great deal of color, as St. Louis Fed Chief, William Poole, was not in attendance. However, all ears will be attuned to the "calamitous" Mr. Poole on Tuesday, as he is scheduled to make an economic address of his own. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen is also scheduled to speak publicly on Tuesday. With lithium batteries catching fire under various circumstances and in several products and pockets, we wonder if it's a good idea to engineer them into automobiles! Barron's reported that Ener1's EnergDel unit will display its own battery for hybrid vehicles on Tuesday. Earnings season begins with the traditional report from Alcoa ( Wednesday's economic calendar is highlighted by the Mortgage Bankers' Association morning reporting of Purchase Applications. In coming weeks, this regular report might provide insight into just how well homebuilder price slashing is working to incentivize purchases and impact the saturated inventory situation. Refinancing results, on the other hand, have and should continue to benefit from the government and banks' goal to help some subprime borrowers out of bad situations. August Wholesale Trade data will be reported at 10:00 AM, and Barron's reports an economist consensus forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Investors should note changes to wholesale sales versus inventory. Based on recent consumer sentiment and spending trends, factory orders, domestic auto sales, and an abundance of incentive providing advertising programs we noticed toward the end of the third quarter, we expect wholesale inventories to show a build on unmet sales expectations. July's data showed a modest 0.2% month-to-month increase in inventories, and June posted a 0.5% rise. Again, we direct your focus to changes in the future ratio of wholesale inventories to sales as the best metric in this data bit to measure material economic softening. Two giants of modern financial history, Alan Greenspan and Jack Welch will be in the same room at the same time on Wednesday, as they address the audience at the World Business Forum in New York. Wednesday's earnings slate is headlined by Costco ( The last two days of the week bring its most intensive of economic data. On Thursday , Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for their regular report at 8:30. Last week's count of new benefits claimants measured 317,000, which was hotter than the four-week average of 312,750. Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for a measure of 315,000 this time around. The International Trade Balance is due for release, with Bloomberg's consensus expecting the trade deficit to show it widened in August by $600 million, to $59.8 billion. With time, we believe the deficit should narrow, as increasing pork exportation, reduced general import demand and the impact of product safety recalls outweigh the impact of lost beef exports due to U.S. contamination. September import prices are seen increasing 0.8% by Bloomberg's consensus, and surely this has been impacted by dollar weakness and oil and commodity price increase. We believe rising import prices provide yet another reason for the Fed to show restraint in October. U.S. retailers report chain-store sales for September, and we anticipate it could get ugly. Without the "back to school" support, withstanding minor benefit from the tail end of it, we expect retailers to post poor results. There's enough evidence to believe so anyway after Wal-Mart ( The Energy Information Administration will make its regular Petroleum Status Report on Thursday, but potential storm development in the Gulf of Mexico remains the most important driver of energy prices this week, in our view. In international news, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady when it convenes on Thursday. PepsiCo's ( The Retail Sales Report for the month of September could provide a rude awakening to the jobs data happy market on Friday . Bloomberg's consensus sees a 0.3% sales rise, both including and excluding autos. August showed a 0.3% increase, excluding autos. September's Producer Price Index is expected to show 0.4% headline growth, and a 0.2% increase excluding food and energy. Producers may be caught in a quandary, with commodity prices rising and end consumer demand waning. That ugliest of economic slogans, though surely second to depression, stagflation could soon make its way to your doorstep. At 10:00 AM, Business Inventories could add to the impact of the week's earlier report of wholesale inventories, raising further economic concern. Bloomberg's consensus sees inventories rising 0.2% in August. It's September we have to worry about. Back in July, businesses were still high on the Q2 GDP report, and ordering away. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment reading for October is seen benefiting from Fed action. Bloomberg's consensus forecasts a sentiment improvement to 84.0, from 83.8 in September. That's not really much improvement is it... The first week of the Q3 earning season should wrap up quietly with the report from HDFC Bank ( If you would like to advertise in the space below our articles, we are now offering tailored plans, including assistance in ad design. Contact us at WallStreetGreek@gmail.com to find out more. ( disclosure ) 
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