This is the first of a short series of articles I plan, reviewing how my
stock recommendations have been doing this year. I started the year
bringing you 10
Alternative Energy Stocks I thought were worth speculating on for 2008, and
I'll start this review with those articles, and also give you updates on what's
been happening (or not) with the stocks. Click on the company name a link
to the original article where I wrote about the stock.
Overall, a portfolio with equal dollar positions in these ten stocks is up
11.4% for the year, compared to the S&P
500 which is down 4.2% and the NASDAQ
Clean Edge US Index, which is down approximately 14.3% (I took the number
from CELS, the ETF which tracks the index, since I could not find up-to-date
index values) since the start of the year.
#10 Cree,
Inc. (NasdaqGS:CREE) Dec
27, 2007: $23.50; June 9, 2008: $25.85 (up 10%).
Cree shot up as high as $35 early in the year, on buy-out speculation.
There was also a quick bump when their transistors were used as part of a record
breaking solar inverter. While a quick profit on a buy-out might be nice, the
fundamentals and growing consumer interest in LEDs mean that I'm happy I didn't
sell at the peak.
#9:Lighting
Science Group (LSGP.OB) Dec
27, 2007: $6.40 (split-adjusted), June 9, 2008: $5.90 (down 7.8%).
Another LED stock, Lighting Science saw a spectacular rise right after I recommended
it, but was badly hurt by a patent
infringement suit from Philips
(NYSE: (PHG) in February.
I found this personally very annoying, since I'm long both companies. I
have no idea how the lawsuit will turn out, but I'm holding both stocks for now.
#8 Maxwell
Technologies (NasdaqGM: MXWL)
Dec 27, 2007: $8.10, June 9, 2008: $13.26 (up 64%)
Ultracapacitors have been much in the news this year as an enabling
technology for hybrid vehicles. Since that's one of the reasons I picked
the company, I'm naturally very pleased.
#7 Electro
Energy, Inc. (NasdaqCM:EEEI)
Dec 30, 2007: $0.68, June 9, 2008: $.65 (down 4.4%)
Electro-Energy has been up and down since I wrote about it, but still has not
caught the attention of the investors piling in to battery stocks. I'm
waiting patiently.
#6 Capstone
Microturbine (NasdaqGM:CPST)
Dec 30, 2007: $1.62, June 9, 2008: $3.41 (up 110%)
Although I recommended this one, I've been totally shocked at how quickly it
has run up. Mostly, this seems to be due to a large, high-profile sale
into the hybrid
bus market. I've taken the opportunity to take some profits (see my selling
rule of thumb #2), but I'm still long.
#5 FuelCell
Energy Inc. (NasdaqGM:FCEL) Dec
30, 2007: $10.30, June 9, 2008: $8.66 (down 16%)
Although this one is down, I still like it for the same reasons. The out
of the money puts I wrote on it look likely to expire unexercised, and I
just wrote some more today.
#4 Composite
Technology Corp. (OTC BB:CPTC)
Dec 30, 2007: $1.37, June 9, 2008: $0.99 (down 28%)
Like Electro Energy, Composite Technology still has not caught the attention
of investors. I bought some more when I revisited
the stock in March, and it's starting to look cheap again.
#3 Nevada
Geothermal Power (OTCBB:NGLPF
or Toronto:NGP.V) Dec
31, 2007: $1.29, June 9, 2008: $1.25 (down 3.1%)
Another one requiring patience. I expect the big gains for this stock
to come before their Pumpernickel project begins to produce electricity
(assuming there aren't any unforeseen hitches), similar to what happened with US
Geothermal (AMEX: HTM) last
year.
#2 Finavera
Renewables (TSX:FVR or FNVRF.PK) Dec 31, 2007: $0.3371, June 9, 2008: $0.19 (down 43%)
I sold my position at a loss when I heard their wave
energy license was subject to rehearing in late January. Since then,
Finavera was issued a preliminary
3 year permit, but I've continued to stay away. My hopes for this one
had been based on an expectation of investor euphoria for wave energy, not
fundamentals, and given the down-trending markets, I don't expect that sort of irrational
exuberance again in 2008.
#1 SHORT First
Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) Dec
31, 2007: $267, June 9, 2008: $245 (8.3% profit)
Since I wrote the article, a reader challenged my math on the impact of Te
prices on their bottom line. Although I've made a profit on this one, I
question my original analysis, but have not re-run the numbers. The slight
decline can be completely attributed to the declining overall market, and FSLR
has outperformed the clean energy sector as a whole. I am still short a
June $300 call, but do not plan to write another when it expires in a week and a
half.
DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and/or his clients have long positions
in CREE, LSGP, MXWL, EEEI, CPST, FCEL, CPTC, NGLPF, PHG and a short position in FSLR.
DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational
purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities.
Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels
before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future
performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.
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