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| QUALITY DISTRIB | (NSDQ: QLTY)Add to My Watchlist |
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| Mon, Aug 11, 2008 | ||
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Nine Stocks, Mostly Earnings Movers
NOBL is one I’ve been trading and writing about—check out all the testimonials from TIMalert subscribers HERE…$4.80-$4.90 is support, if it cracks that, it could tank 50 cents or so, so far it’s been holding on…I doubt I’ll short this as it is an earnings play so no matter what happens, it really shouldn’t collapse quickly like pump and dumps doEVSO is a spmmaer goin higher, wasting an awful lo of volume though and still hasn’t broken out…hopefully these spammers are the real deal and can push this thing waaay up, I’ll probly wait til a confirmed breakout above $3 to buyPRS is a financial play going up gradually, two strikes against it, I’m not interested in shortingVUOC has been spiking from 50 cents/share to $1—they’ve supposedly developed energy[More...]
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| Mon, May 05, 2008 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Linens and Nothing
This week's Chain Store sales report looks to confirm the anecdotal evidence seen at Home Depot, Linen 'n Things, Talbots and others. Also, this week's decision by the ECB might offer insight into the durability of any dollar rally.
Chain store sales should offer no surprise when they disappoint later this week, in our estimation. Linen 'n Things went bankrupt last week, and Home Depot announced the closing of some stores, offering more anecdotal evidence into the trouble ahead for retail. Some would argue that the tax rebate will help, and we agree, but we see only a one quarter benefit. The trouble is longer-term than that, especially if energy and food costs remain so troublesome for Americans, and credit so tight. The Greek has singled out this week's ECB announcement and press conference as the most important event of the week. What the ECB does and says this week has the potential to move the dollar, commodities and stocks. Eurozone regulators are inflation manic at the moment, but they are also well aware of the competitive position of American goods in Europe, and that potential impact to European manufacturing. The consensus sees no move ahead for the ECB and the BOE, but we expect not soon after the Fed turns hawkish or neutral, the ECB will want to hike rates as well to contain inflation upward of 3%. So, dollar enthusiasts should be aware that a rally would most likely be a short-lived event (less than a year). The market closed higher last week and for April, as stronger footing was established by a better than expected Employment Situation Report on Friday. The report indicated that 20,000 jobs were lost, which was better than the 75,000 economists expected, according to Bloomberg’s survey. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%, from 5.1% in March. Unfortunately the unemployment rate misses the fact that most people are generally not lazy. The number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons, meaning they or their spouse probably lost their full-time job, increased by 306K in April, and it measured 849K more than a year ago. These under-employed individuals, while not considered jobless, are certainly having a tougher time making ends meet. Thus, the data offers a falsely positive indicator for the near-term economy. Even so, the growth in Q1 GDP reported earlier last week was also more enthusing to see than contraction would have been, and gave stocks even more reason to seek higher ground. Tax rebate checks have started rolling out, and offer tax paying consumers a chance to catch their breath in the near-term. If the government’s other intense election-year actions help the economy gain traction before too long, we’ll have to offer Bush, the Dems, Paulson and Bernanke and company kudos for staving off a deeper economic downturn than would resulted otherwise. The Week Ahead This week contains important reports concerning the housing and retail industries, as well as noteworthy news from Europe. Monday A significantly lighter load of economic data is in store this week, and Monday's schedule holds just one item. At 10:00 a.m., the Institute for Supply Management reports its Non-Manufacturing Survey. While Barron's notes expectations at Lehman Brothers for an ISM service sector measure indicative of economic expansion (+50.0), Bloomberg's survey of economists has set expectations for a reading of 49.3, just below the breakeven point. Bernanke looks to start his post FOMC meeting tour, beginning with a Columbia Business School dinner. Markets will be closed on Monday in Australia, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. As earnings season remains hot and heavy, Monday's schedule includes Goldcorp ( Tuesday On Tuesday, we advise investors pay attention to the weekly same-store sales report from the International Council of Shopping Centers – UBS. Last week’s report showed growth of 0.9%, but the week before that posted the first year-over-year decrease in our memory, as sales fell 0.7%. Just last year, sales growth was running at a pace of 2%-3%. While the Japanese market remains closed, Australian bankers will announce their latest rate decision. The Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates steady. In the States, Kansas City Fed President Hoenig keeps the Fed post-FOMC tour rolling with his address in Colorado. Democratic state primaries are scheduled in North Carolina and Indiana. Some would argue that it was South Carolina that set the wheels of change in motion for Barack Obama, and so perhaps it's appropriate that North Carolina can complete it; however, NC is a very different state and Bill Clinton is a very different campaign factor now. Up on Capitol Hill, the Senate Banking Committee is working on a bill to create a new regulator to watch over Fannie Mae ( Fannie Mae ( Wednesday Wednesday offers a busy one for economic news, and some of it capable of moving the market. Before the open, the Mortgage Bankers' Association will report its weekly take on mortgage activity. This report has been sort of a nonfactor of late, because until it and other housing data indicate a housing market turn in earnest, investors are just not going to find value here. We have noted in the past that mortgage rates have started to reflect increased expectations for inflation, and so some of the anticipated impact to housing from the rate cuts (in isolation) has been offset. At 8:30 on Wednesday, Q1 Productivity and Costs will be noted. Pay attention to late coming reports and revisions, especially those that play a role in the GDP calculation. Economists will be adjusting their forecast for GDP ahead of its reported revision this month. Nonfarm productivity is seen improving by 1.7% in Q1, after an increase of 1.9% in Q4 2007. Unit Labor Costs, the more important part of this report now due to its contribution to inflation, is seen increasing 2.6% in Q1, after an increase of 2.6% in Q4. We expect this figure to decrease in future quarters as lower cost workers replace higher paid legacy employees. This has been a staple factor in the cost reduction efforts at General Motors ( The stock market has proven resilient to recently deteriorating housing data, and it will get another resiliency test on Wednesday when the Pending Home Sales Index is reported for March. February’s report displayed a decrease of 1.9% from January. While many economists are pointing toward another double digit decline in home values before we touch bottom, and we agree values must still adjust lower, major media has started to pick up on vulture investing opportunities in the foreclosure market. However, if the foreclosure market is getting so much attention, this says something about the still wary buyers in the general real estate market. It's hard to overspend in the foreclosure space, if you do your research and do not enter into a contract for a home loan involving a property that has other liens against it. In other words, do you homework. Petroleum Status is on tap for its regular 10:30 reporting. Last week, a precipitous decline was offset by Turkish bombing of Kurd positions. Thus, you can expect oil to start lower again this week, but The Greek is on record warning about future ECB actions and how they might some day end this dollar rally. If the ECB raises rates, a real possibility, look for dollar enthusiasts to get a slap in the face, and commodity bears also. Still, everything depends on that ECB decision and press conference on Thursday, and the most important thing you can do on Thursday is pay attention to that news flow. With Congress coming down on credit card companies, and rightly so, the Consumer Credit Report should get more interesting in the near future. Many of you may not be aware of credit card company roughhousing, so we'll inform. When the less fortunate get into a bind and fall behind a payment or two, the credit card companies tighten the noose around the borrower's neck, often times raising the APR on consumer credit above 30%. This places the borrower into a deeper hole he often cannot get out of, outside of settling on partial payment or declaring bankruptcy, both detrimental to credit record. And many poor folk don't even understand their options and continue to struggle month to month, paying late fees, over the limit fees and a plus 30% interest rate. This highway robbery has to stop, and I don't care if it's in the contract or not. If you tell me you are going to rob, rape and murder me in fine print, that still does not make it okay. Consumer Credit for the month of March is indicated to rise by $6.0 billion when reported on Wednesday afternoon. February credit increased by $5.1 billion, and the rate of credit expansion looks to have decreased this year generally. One will have to wonder if the Antichrist has ushered in the "beast" when Vladimir Putin hands over the Kremlin to Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday. Medvedev is officially inaugurated on this day, but whether the puppeteer's strings are severed or not is another question. Markets in France will be closed on Wednesday, presumably to make sure all the nuclear energy plants are working properly as Russia prepares to hold Europe hostage for heat and electricity. In the States, a Senate subcommittee considers the Delta-Northwest merger ( Wednesday's earnings schedule includes Croc’s ( Thursday On Thursday, the Chain Store Sales Report for the month of April is likely to offer further verification for what we expect will be an ongoing deterioration of the retail sector in 2008. Supporting anecdotal evidence has been mounting, with news last week that Home Depot ( Last week’s spring economic forecast published by the European Union, brought Europe’s inflation concerns to the fore. Anyone who watches European TV occasionally, like me, knows all about the mania in Europe concerning rising costs. Americans with travel plans across the pond are certainly working the calculator these days, and watching the likelihood of this year’s trip dwindle with each passing day, and each penny the euro strengthens against the dollar. This week, the ECB might put its money where its mouth is, and God forbid, raise European interest rates as it battles the inflation enemy. The ECB and Bank of England will announce their respective rate decisions on Thursday morning. A rate increase would almost surely prove damaging to the dollar, but it's not generally expected. The regular reporting of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for 8:30 release. Bloomberg's consensus of economists forecasts a level of 370K claims this time around, after the measure rated at 380K last week. March Wholesale Trade is due for mid-AM report, and inventories rose 1.1% in February (+0.8% in Jan.) on the wholesale level. The ratio of inventory to sales is more important, and there's been an uptick in the trend recently, indicating the impact of recession or fear of it in product flow and purchases. The long-term trend, however, shows great efficiency gain from improved global distribution, technology and just-in-time production. The weekly Natural Gas Report is on tap for its usual 10:30 notation. In the pending war with Iran, natural gas will be our energy resource of choice. We have nice stores of coal-bed methane in the Colorado Rockies, and plenty of gas in Canada. Coal of course is an important resource in North America as well, if you're forecasting the possibility of serious competition for control of Middle Eastern energy resources. Hey, this is not so far fetched, so fetch your one eyebrow back from that raised position. India is reportedly considering similar protectionist measures to China regarding rice, and so it's becoming plainly obvious that the free market extends only as far as free availability of commodities. Then, we're sorry to say, protectionism and maybe even war become real possibilities... Thursday's earnings include American International Group ( Friday Friday offers two reports, including the International Trade data for starters. The deficit is expected to narrow to $60.8 billion in March. "What about China!", we hear you screaming. Remember, there are important dynamic factors at play now offsetting the global production factor. First of all, with global development comes international demand for U.S. branded goods. If you've ever been to Eastern Europe, you know they'll pay $100+ for a pair of lousy old Levi's. Anything American sells way above value, and they seek "made in America" tags even more intently then super-patriotic types do here. Besides this, of course the decline in the dollar has helped American exporters, and manufacturing is getting a well-publicized boost from it all. Finally, never forget there are two factors to this equation, and when America nears recession, demand for overall goods and services declines, and so import demand wanes. In a report last week, we saw imports and exports both rose recently, but exports exceeded import growth near three-fold. After April ended five consecutive months of stock market decline, expect the RBC Cash Index to begin to show the signs of confidence building. Sure, sure, the little guy is still hoarding cash, but we bet the investments he's buying now include some names he would not have touched months ago. Heck, I bet even SIVs have made some courageous folks some money lately, considering the government's willingness to hold risk. Friday's earnings schedule includes Allianz S.E. ( Please find our daily market commentary and our disclosure at Wall Street Greek. 
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| Mon, Mar 10, 2008 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Buy the News?
The Greek's Week Ahead is the most comprehensive "week ahead" market-moving event planner in existence. “Buy the rumor, sell the news!” Market gurus often echo this long-standing and well-known bit of wisdom. In the current economic situation, we would reverse the quote and say instead, “sell the rumor, buy the news.” In this case the rumor has been that recession is on the way, despite the Federal Reserve Chairman and the President’s advice to the contrary. The stock market has listened carefully to this rumor, and has sharply corrected from October 2007 highs. Over the past few months, economic data has offered apparent validation of the rumor through increasing evidence that economic recession might finally have befallen us. So, is it time to close our eyes to troubling data and buy into the news? Perhaps the more important question to ask is have we really received confirmation of the rumor? Recession has not yet been confirmed. However, even if it had been, it would take courage (some would say blind bravado) to buy stocks in a market that continues to set new lows on still deteriorating data flow. This plays right into another famous piece of market wisdom. Legendary investors like Warren Buffet advise to “buy into fear and sell into greed.” A few readers who find themselves poorer since following this wisdom from a starting point earlier this year might not agree. It seems to us that the most important consideration before us requires us to gauge where we stand in the current economic cycle. Whether it is time to buy or not depends on it. There are three general views of our economic situation and outlook that are painted by various economists. The majority of economists see recession possible, and economic slowing likely. This group also expects the economy to begin to grow again by year-end. This group, let’s call them the Consensus Economists, would likely say you should buy stocks when bad news draws no more sell-off reaction. The thinking here is that seller exhaustion finally sets in. Then eventually, economic stimulus offered by the Federal Reserve and Congress should serve as catalyst for economic recovery and stock market rise. The second group of experts, let’s call them the Armageddon Economists, would tell you that this credit market crisis we are now experiencing, combined with the inflation environment, offers a unique and destructive path for the economy. These jolly souls are the pessimistic extremists who have increasingly found believers. However extreme they may be, they actually may hold a better poker hand than the optimists. There are few catalysts that could add on to current trouble to make these doomsayers correct, whether they are now or not. For instance, a messy war involving an important oil-producing nation (read Iran and maybe Venezuela) could prove extremely problematic. In that scenario, oil prices would move even higher and further stress global economies at exactly the worst time for it. The third group of strategists is composed of optimists who believe prices will back up due to global economic slowing. They also believe a recession might still be averted. Remember, recession requires two consecutive quarters of economic contraction to be labeled so. The Greek falls somewhere between the Consensus and the Armageddon groups. Last year, we were considered Armageddon-like when we discussed the likelihood of liquidity drying up and economic strife. Now the consensus has found us. There's still good reason to fear the entire financial system might finally fail, but we'll dive deeper into this in another article. While current economic troubles are very unique and concerning, I have faith in an intangible factor. The economy has mitigated significant problems already, and done so through diligent efforts of government and private sector alike. I believe the problem solving human mind will continue to find resolution where it might not immediately be apparent. For this reason, we find fault in the Armageddon viewpoint. Its basis rests on a presumed stagnant economic factor, human creativity, and by definition that’s already proven false. The Week Ahead The week ahead offers significantly less economic releases than this past week. Monday Wholesale Trade (Jan.) on Monday and Business Inventories (Jan.) on Thursday will offer insight into the condition of inventories and inventory-to-sales ratios on the wholesale, manufacturing and retail levels. We have noted in the past the long-term trend of decrease in inventory-to-sales ratios. This of course is the beneficial result of the penetration of new technologies into modern business operations. Just-in-time production to delivery processes have significantly improved inventory management and thus improved our economy’s ability to emerge from economic trough. According to Barron's, the consensus expectation for January's Wholesale Inventories is for an increase of 0.5%, versus a rise of 1.1% in December. Three corporate events could offer market-moving impact on Monday. Texas Instruments ( Earnings season has winded down, but the week ahead still offers noteworthy reports from Hovnanian Enterprises ( Other companies reporting include Bancolumbia ( Tuesday Tuesday’s International Trade (Jan.), Thursday’s Import & Export Prices (Feb.) and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (Feb.) will offer an important fresh look at inflation. Price information will be directly offered by the CPI and import price data, and indirectly seen in the impact of weak domestic purchasing on international trade. It’s near critical to the market to see some easing of price pressure, but that seems unlikely at this juncture. Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for the international trade deficit to widen to $59.5 billion in January, from $58.8 billion in December. This seems out of order, with the economy faultering, but it's the result of the rising price of oil. Tuesday also offers the regular weekly same-store sales report from the ICSC-UBS. The data here has defied previous trend that had it headed into the abyss, and last week's year-over-year tally saw sales rise 2.1%. The FDA is considering a Schering-Plough ( Tuesday's noteworthy earnings reports include Boston Beer Co. ( Wednesday The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its weekly Purchase Applications Report early Wednesday premarket. Applications rose last week, but long rates look to rise as the ECB and BOE held rates steady last week. Thus, mortgage activity should fade. The Census Bureau is to release its Quarterly Services Survey at 10:00 AM on Wednesday. Then, at 10:30, the EIA Petroleum Status Report might actually help oil prices ease some this time around, considering recent builds and the imminent onset of recession. February's Treasury Budget release at 2:00 PM is expected to show a deficit of $157 billion, versus a seasonal surplus of $17.8 billion in January. Fannie Mae ( The House Financial Services Panel is going to look at how the credit crunch is impacting local governments. They might want to start thinking about how recession will impact the tax coffers as well. Wednesday's EPS reports include those from American Eagle Outfitters ( Thursday February's Retail Sales are expected to have increased 0.2%, versus a 0.3% increase in January. All indications from individual chain store sales and ICSC weekly data point to growth here as well, despite signs the consumer is breaking. The aforementioned Import & Export Prices Report (see Tuesday) is expected by economists to show a February import price increase of 0.6%. Import prices climbed 1.7% in January. Business Inventories (see Monday) are expected to have increased 0.5% in January, according to Bloomberg. That would match up against a 0.6% rise in December. The regular EIA Natural Gas Report is due at 10:30 on Thursday. Nat gas was priced at $9.70/MMBtu on Monday morning. European Union leaders are getting together to discuss how to handle sovereign wealth funds. That should be interesting! Microsoft ( Friday Friday's Consumer Price Index should cause quite a stir to close out the week, again! Who schedules these things? It's just crazy to put such important data out on a Friday, considering the possibility for panic selling from those unwilling to hold shares through the weekend. February's headline CPI is seen rising 0.3%, while the core figure is expected to increase 0.2%. Last month, these two data points increased 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Even an in-line figure should be enough to restart the stagflation banter. Our best guess says, barring any other important information driver, the market should sell off into this report. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March is seen measuring at 69.5. While this is a relatively low figure, we expect an even lower result. Every consumer sentiment reading shows deterioration, and we see no reason for the trend to break until after economic and market data flow improves. Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to address the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, so the financial paparazzi will be on high alert for any keyword slip ups like "stagflation" or "recession." Genentech ( See our daily market commentary and now regular premarket reports here all week long. You can support "The Greek" by supporting our advertisers. Thank you. ( disclosure ) 
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