Source: The Gold Report

Consistently ranked as one of the top-10 gold and precious metals mining analysts in Canada, Capital Research’s Senior Vice President and Director Barry Allan offers a well-rounded perspective on the mining sector that combines geological fieldwork, equity research and finance. Now, after more than 16 years in…

The Greek's Week Ahead is the most comprehensive "week ahead" market-moving event planner in existence.

“Buy the rumor, sell the news!” Market gurus often echo this long-standing and well-known bit of wisdom. In the current economic situation, we would reverse the quote and say instead, “sell the rumor, buy the news.” In this case the rumor has been that recession is on the way, despite the Federal Reserve Chairman and the President’s advice to the contrary.

The stock market has listened carefully to this rumor, and has sharply corrected from October 2007 highs. Over the past few months, economic data has offered apparent validation of the rumor through increasing evidence that economic recession might finally have befallen us. So, is it time to close our eyes to troubling data and buy into the news? Perhaps the more important question to ask is have we really received confirmation of the rumor? Recession has not yet been confirmed.

However, even if it had been, it would take courage (some would say blind bravado) to buy stocks in a market that continues to set new lows on still deteriorating data flow. This plays right into another famous piece of market wisdom. Legendary investors like Warren Buffet advise to “buy into fear and sell into greed.” A few readers who find themselves poorer since following this wisdom from a starting point earlier this year might not agree.

It seems to us that the most important consideration before us requires us to gauge where we stand in the current economic cycle. Whether it is time to buy or not depends on it. There are three general views of our economic situation and outlook that are painted by various economists. The majority of economists see recession possible, and economic slowing likely. This group also expects the economy to begin to grow again by year-end.

This group, let’s call them the Consensus Economists, would likely say you should buy stocks when bad news draws no more sell-off reaction. The thinking here is that seller exhaustion finally sets in. Then eventually, economic stimulus offered by the Federal Reserve and Congress should serve as catalyst for economic recovery and stock market rise.

The second group of experts, let’s call them the Armageddon Economists, would tell you that this credit market crisis we are now experiencing, combined with the inflation environment, offers a unique and destructive path for the economy. These jolly souls are the pessimistic extremists who have increasingly found believers. However extreme they may be, they actually may hold a better poker hand than the optimists.

There are few catalysts that could add on to current trouble to make these doomsayers correct, whether they are now or not. For instance, a messy war involving an important oil-producing nation (read Iran and maybe Venezuela) could prove extremely problematic. In that scenario, oil prices would move even higher and further stress global economies at exactly the worst time for it.

The third group of strategists is composed of optimists who believe prices will back up due to global economic slowing. They also believe a recession might still be averted. Remember, recession requires two consecutive quarters of economic contraction to be labeled so.

The Greek falls somewhere between the Consensus and the Armageddon groups. Last year, we were considered Armageddon-like when we discussed the likelihood of liquidity drying up and economic strife. Now the consensus has found us. There's still good reason to fear the entire financial system might finally fail, but we'll dive deeper into this in another article.

While current economic troubles are very unique and concerning, I have faith in an intangible factor. The economy has mitigated significant problems already, and done so through diligent efforts of government and private sector alike. I believe the problem solving human mind will continue to find resolution where it might not immediately be apparent. For this reason, we find fault in the Armageddon viewpoint. Its basis rests on a presumed stagnant economic factor, human creativity, and by definition that’s already proven false.

The Week Ahead

The week ahead offers significantly less economic releases than this past week.

Monday

Wholesale Trade (Jan.) on Monday and Business Inventories (Jan.) on Thursday will offer insight into the condition of inventories and inventory-to-sales ratios on the wholesale, manufacturing and retail levels. We have noted in the past the long-term trend of decrease in inventory-to-sales ratios. This of course is the beneficial result of the penetration of new technologies into modern business operations. Just-in-time production to delivery processes have significantly improved inventory management and thus improved our economy’s ability to emerge from economic trough.

According to Barron's, the consensus expectation for January's Wholesale Inventories is for an increase of 0.5%, versus a rise of 1.1% in December.

Three corporate events could offer market-moving impact on Monday. Texas Instruments ( NYSE: TXN) is meeting with analysts, while Bear Stearns holds its annual Media and Marketing Conference. Also, John Malone hopes to force IAC/Interactive ( Nasdaq: IACI) to split into five separate organizations through a Delaware court action.

Earnings season has winded down, but the week ahead still offers noteworthy reports from Hovnanian Enterprises ( NYSE: HOV), Jones Soda ( Nasdaq: JSDA), Lifetime Brands ( Nasdaq: LCUT), The Blackstone Group ( NYSE: BX) and Vail Resorts ( NYSE: MTN). Hovnanian Enterprises looks to be the most interesting report of the day. Analysts are looking for a huge loss of $1.96 per share for the January quarter. HOV has missed estimates each of the last four quarters.

Other companies reporting include Bancolumbia ( NYSE: CIB), Boots and Coots Int'l Well Control ( AMEX: WEL), CECO Environmental ( Nasdaq: CECE), CMGI Inc. ( Nasdaq: CMGI), ExpressJet Holdings ( NYSE: XJT), Foot Locker ( NYSE: FL), Hydrogenics ( Nasdaq: HYGS), Lipid Sciences ( Nasdaq: LIPD), Neose Tech ( Nasdaq: NTEC), ResCare Inc. ( Nasdaq: RSCR), Six Flags ( NYSE: SIX) and others.

Tuesday

Tuesday’s International Trade (Jan.), Thursday’s Import & Export Prices (Feb.) and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (Feb.) will offer an important fresh look at inflation. Price information will be directly offered by the CPI and import price data, and indirectly seen in the impact of weak domestic purchasing on international trade. It’s near critical to the market to see some easing of price pressure, but that seems unlikely at this juncture.

Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for the international trade deficit to widen to $59.5 billion in January, from $58.8 billion in December. This seems out of order, with the economy faultering, but it's the result of the rising price of oil.

Tuesday also offers the regular weekly same-store sales report from the ICSC-UBS. The data here has defied previous trend that had it headed into the abyss, and last week's year-over-year tally saw sales rise 2.1%.

The FDA is considering a Schering-Plough ( NYSE: SGP) drug devised to reverse the effects of anesthesia, while Chevron ( NYSE: CVX), BMC Software ( NYSE: BMC) and Caterpillar ( NYSE: CAT) hold analyst meetings.

Tuesday's noteworthy earnings reports include Boston Beer Co. ( NYSE: SAM), Dick’s Sporting Goods ( NYSE: DKS), J. Crew ( NYSE: JCG), Take-Two Interactive ( Nasdaq: TTWO), Kroger ( NYSE: KR), Akorn ( Nasdaq: AKRX), AmREIT ( AMEX: AMY), Bon-Ton Stores ( Nasdaq: BONT), Capital Senior Living ( NYSE: CSU), Collective Brands ( NYSE: CSS), GigaMedia ( Nasdaq: GIGM), Gottschalks ( NYSE: GOT), IDT Corp. ( NYSE: IDT), Pep Boys ( NYSE: PBY), Plug Power ( Nasdaq: PLUG), Stage Stores ( NYSE: SSI), Stewart Enterprises ( Nasdaq: STEI), Superior Well Services ( Nasdaq: SWSI), The Buckle ( NYSE: BKE), West Marine ( Nasdaq: WMAR) and more.

Wednesday

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its weekly Purchase Applications Report early Wednesday premarket. Applications rose last week, but long rates look to rise as the ECB and BOE held rates steady last week. Thus, mortgage activity should fade.

The Census Bureau is to release its Quarterly Services Survey at 10:00 AM on Wednesday. Then, at 10:30, the EIA Petroleum Status Report might actually help oil prices ease some this time around, considering recent builds and the imminent onset of recession. February's Treasury Budget release at 2:00 PM is expected to show a deficit of $157 billion, versus a seasonal surplus of $17.8 billion in January.

Fannie Mae ( NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac ( NYSE: FRE) caught some unwanted publicity over the weekend when Barron's wrote up a tough piece on Fannie. Freddie is set to meet with analysts Wednesday.

The House Financial Services Panel is going to look at how the credit crunch is impacting local governments. They might want to start thinking about how recession will impact the tax coffers as well.

Wednesday's EPS reports include those from American Eagle Outfitters ( NYSE: AEO), Gymboree ( Nasdaq: GYMB), JA Solar ( Nasdaq: JASO), Men’s Wearhouse ( NYSE: MW), Quality Distribution ( Nasdaq: QLTY), Speedway Motorsports ( NYSE: TRK), The PMI Group ( NYSE: PMI), Flanders ( Nasdaq: FLDR), Globalstar ( Nasdaq: GSAT), Goodrich Petroleum ( NYSE: GDP), Hot Topic ( Nasdaq: HOTT), Jo-Ann Stores ( NYSE: JAS), Jupitermedia ( Nasdaq: JUPM), Kronos Worldwide ( NYSE: KRO), Neenah Paper ( NYSE: NP), Talbots ( NYSE: TLB), Titan Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: TTP), TLC Vision ( Nasdaq: TLCV) and more.

Thursday

February's Retail Sales are expected to have increased 0.2%, versus a 0.3% increase in January. All indications from individual chain store sales and ICSC weekly data point to growth here as well, despite signs the consumer is breaking.

The aforementioned Import & Export Prices Report (see Tuesday) is expected by economists to show a February import price increase of 0.6%. Import prices climbed 1.7% in January. Business Inventories (see Monday) are expected to have increased 0.5% in January, according to Bloomberg. That would match up against a 0.6% rise in December.

The regular EIA Natural Gas Report is due at 10:30 on Thursday. Nat gas was priced at $9.70/MMBtu on Monday morning. European Union leaders are getting together to discuss how to handle sovereign wealth funds. That should be interesting!

Microsoft ( Nasdaq: MSFT) is scheduled to meet with analysts on Thursday. Thursday earnings include Aeropostale ( NYSE: ARO), Akeena Solar ( Nasdaq: AKNS), Biovail ( NYSE: BVF), Churchill Downs ( Nasdaq: CHDN), Dendreon ( Nasdaq: DNDN), Genesco ( NYSE: GCO), Luxottica ( NYSE: LUX), American States Water ( NYSE: AWR), Autobytel.com ( Nasdaq: ABTL), Cell Therapeutics ( Nasdaq: CTIC), Citizens, Inc. ( NYSE: CIA), Cornell Cos. ( NYSE: CRN), Dot Hill Systems ( Nasdaq: HILL), Eddie Bauer ( Nasdaq: EBHI), Isis Pharmaceuticals ( Nasdaq: ISIS), Kintera ( Nasdaq: KNTA), Miller Industries ( NYSE: MLR), MIVA Inc. ( Nasdaq: MIVA), NPS Pharmaceuticals ( Nasdaq: NPSP), Orthovita ( Nasdaq: VITA), Pacific Sunwear ( Nasdaq: PSUN), Ready Mix ( AMEX: RMX), Superconductor Technologies ( Nasdaq: SCON), Think Partnership ( AMEX: THK), Unversal Display ( Nasdaq: PANL), Zumiez ( Nasdaq: ZUMZ) and more.

Friday

Friday's Consumer Price Index should cause quite a stir to close out the week, again! Who schedules these things? It's just crazy to put such important data out on a Friday, considering the possibility for panic selling from those unwilling to hold shares through the weekend. February's headline CPI is seen rising 0.3%, while the core figure is expected to increase 0.2%. Last month, these two data points increased 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Even an in-line figure should be enough to restart the stagflation banter. Our best guess says, barring any other important information driver, the market should sell off into this report.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March is seen measuring at 69.5. While this is a relatively low figure, we expect an even lower result. Every consumer sentiment reading shows deterioration, and we see no reason for the trend to break until after economic and market data flow improves.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to address the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, so the financial paparazzi will be on high alert for any keyword slip ups like "stagflation" or "recession."

Genentech ( NYSE: DNA) and Gannett are set to address analysts on Friday, while the earnings schedule includes AnnTaylor ( NYSE: ANN), Eni SpA ( NYSE: E), IMAX ( Nasdaq: IMAX), Mannatech ( Nasdaq: MTEX), Novavax ( Nasdaq: NVAX), Reis Inc. ( Nasdaq: REIS), Smart Balance ( Nasdaq: SMBL), Sterling Construction ( Nasdaq: STRL) and a few more.

See our daily market commentary and now regular premarket reports here all week long.

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YHOO Yahoo! Inc 21.95
WM Washington Mutual Inc 12.04
WFMI Whole Foods Market Inc 34.96
WAG Walgreen Co. 33.50
USG USG Corporation 30.68
SYY Sysco Corporation 28.57
SVU Supervalu Inc 26.89
SHLD Sears Hldgs Corp 95.08
RMIX U S Concrete Inc 2.48
RL Polo Ralph Lauren Corp 55.82
OMX Officemax Inc Del 17.70
OFC Corporate Office Pptys Tr 26.64
ODP Office Depot, Inc 11.80
OC Owens Corning New 18.15
MAT Mattel, Inc 17.08
LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc 20.27
LF Leapfrog Enterprises Inc 5.00
HSY Hershey Co 37.53
HD Home Depot, Inc 24.39
HAS Hasbro Inc 22.73
FDX Fedex Corp 82.08
DWA Dreamworks Animation ... 22.51
DOW The Dow Chemical Company 36.19
DOV Dover Corporation 38.04
DNB Dun & Bradstreet Corp ... 81.97
DIS Walt Disney Company 29.86
CPB Campbell Soup Company 34.17
COLM Columbia Sportswear Co 37.97
COH Coach Inc 27.04
BX Blackstone Group L P 17.81
BA Boeing Co. 79.60



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The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for events that could impact your portfolio this week.

Last week's activity offered the epitome of volatility, with huge fluctuations in direction commonplace, especially within the first and last half hours of trading. The market seemed unsure as to which direction to take, moving on new bits of concerning news flow ( as we warned here that it could in last week's copy ). Three bombs in particular barraged the market: the solvency warning from American Home Mortgage ( NYSE: AHM); Standard & Poor's revised "negative outlook" for the credit rating of Bear Stearns', and Bear's CFO's description of the credit environment as the worst he had seen in decades; and finally July's Employment Situation Report indicating a potentially softening labor climate. After that trio of bad liquor, who knew what hangover Monday could bring. That's exactly what had the market jittery on Friday afternoon, when sellers came in with purpose. It's suddenly en vogue to exit holdings and risk on Fridays, when it use to be the day for buying on deal speculation frenzy.

Alas, undeniably, Monday brings a new day, though also a week's worth of potential minefield, depending on your outlook. The pessimist will surely be looking for the next lender, builder or insurer failure. Speaking of insurers, did you see Barron's frightening piece on ACA Capital ( NYSE: ACA). We suspect our favorite journal's editorial staff spent as much time drumming up the scariest title possible, as they did editing the entire piece, labeling it "Subprime's Ultimate Time Bomb." That was quite pessimistic fellows.

Optimists, on the other hand, will be looking on with glossy eyes and hopeful smiles toward Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee announcement. In times like these, Alan Greenspan’s Fed could usually be counted on to come to the rescue, but there's some debate as to how Mr. Bernanke's group will react. It seems certain they will address the critical topic of credit markets and liquidity. Many are hopeful that assertive commentary from the Fed and assurance that the overseer will be there if necessary, would be enough to settle shaky hands. After all, despite its focus on inflation and view that the subprime issue was contained, the group has indicated that economic growth, housing and credit issues would be closely watched for change. It's implied there that, "like a bridge over troubled waters, they will guide us through"; let's just hope that bridge was built recently and properly inspected. Implication aside, last week, two Fed governors contradicted each other with credit market related statements, but we'll take comfort in the fact that the last word was one of reassurance.

It's about time we take a closer look at the week ahead...

Monday is economic news light, so barring any early morning AHM type slam, and there's no guarantee of this, then the market should start to anticipate Tuesday's Fed statement. Again qualified by the absence of explosions in lending or anywhere else, we think the market will see inflows of capital in anticipation of good news from the Fed.

We're not sure this matters to anyone but Canadians, and we hope our fans in the great white north know we love them, but the Canadian markets are closed on Monday. In the States, Monday's earnings report schedule includes A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts ( NASDAQ:ACMR), American Science and Engineering ( NASDAQ: ASEI), Aqua America ( NYSE: WTR), Axis Capital Holdings ( NYSE: AXS), Blue Nile ( NASDAQ: NILE), Comstock Resources ( NYSE: CRK), Corrections Corp. of America ( NYSE: CXW), Dun & Bradstreet ( NYSE: DNB), Gladstone Capital ( NASDAQ: GLAD), HealthExtras ( NASDAQ: HLEX), Home Properties ( NYSE: HME), J2 Global Communications ( NASDAQ: JCOM), Mentor Corp. ( NYSE: MNT), New York Mortgage Trust ( NYSE: NTR), Novatel Wireless ( NASDAQ: NVTL), Plains All American Pipeline ( NYSE: PAA), Quality Systems ( NASDAQ: QSII), ResCare ( NASDAQ: RSCR), Sina Corp. ( NASDAQ: SINA), Spectra Energy ( NYSE: SE), Standard Motor ( NYSE: SMP), Sykes Enterprises ( NASDAQ: SYKE), U.S. Shipping Partners LP ( NYSE: USS), Vector Group ( NYSE: VGR), Washington Group International ( NYSE: WNG), Wynn Resorts ( NASDAQ: WYNN) and many others.

Tuesday brings the usual ICSC-UBS Weekly Same-Store Sales Report, and recent data indicates mall traffic is down. Last week's data showed a little bit of life though, as the group reported week-over-week growth of 1.1% and year-over-year growth of 3.2%. Internationally, South Korea is hosting a meeting of six nations to discuss energy aid for North Korea's nuclear compliance.

At 8:30 a.m. EDT, second quarter productivity is slated for report. In Q1, productivity rose 1.0%, while unit labor costs increased 1.8%, quarter-over-quarter. Barron's reported MFR's expectation for productivity to increase 2.0% this time around. At 2:15 p.m., the highly anticipated and likely week defining event occurs, the FOMC releases its policy statement. Most expect the group to keep the Fed-funds target rate at 5.25%. A cut would help to ease credit concerns, and a firm statement that the Fed remains ready to act if necessary may do the same. Continued hawkish inflationary commentary would, however, not be helpful at this point.

Later on Tuesday, June Consumer Credit is seen increasing by $5 billion, compared to $12.9 billion in May. There are a few ways to interpret consumer credit changes. An excessive or abnormal increase could be indicative of stretched consumers pushing it a bit more, while light growth could be construed as a result of tightening credit standards that could in turn impact consumer spending patterns. Or, if considered directly and simply, it would be an indicator of lower spending. For comparison purposes, the extremely cold month of April showed a consumer credit increase of just $2.6 billion.

We provide earnings report data because we know a good deal of you are traders seeking the next catalyst. Tuesday presents an extremely heavy earnings schedule including Affordable Residential Communities ( NYSE: HTH), Allied Healthcare ( NASDAQ: AHCI), Allos Therapeutics ( NASDAQ: ALTH), Atmos Energy ( NYSE: ATO), Avis Budget Group ( NYSE: CAR), Bayer AG ( NYSE: BAY), Bio-Rad Laboratories ( AMEX: BIO), Boston Beer Co. ( NYSE: SAM), BUCA, Inc. ( NASDAQ: BUCA), Charles River Laboratories ( NYSE: CRL), Church & Dwight ( NYSE: CHD), Churchill Downs ( NASDAQ: CHDN), Cisco Systems ( NASDAQ: CSCO), Cree ( NASDAQ: CREE), Dean Foods ( NYSE: DF), Duke Energy ( NYSE: DUK), El Paso ( NYSE: EP), EMC Insurance Group ( NASDAQ: EMCI), Emerson Electric ( NYSE: EMR), Equity One ( NYSE: EQY), Expeditors International ( NASDAQ: EXPD), Firstenergy ( NYSE: FE), Fluor Corp. ( NYSE: FLR), Golden Star Resources ( AMEX: GSS), Guitar Center ( NASDAQ: GTRC), Harrah's Entertainment ( NYSE: HET), Heely's Inc. ( NASDAQ: HLYS), Henry Schein ( NASDAQ: HSIC), HRPT Properties Trust ( NYSE: HRP), Integra LifeSciences ( NASDAQ: IART), International Securities Exchange ( NYSE: ISE), King Pharmaceuticals ( NYSE: KG), Leap Wireless ( NASDAQ: LEAP), Marsh & McLennan ( NYSE: MMC), Marvel Entertainment ( NYSE: MVL), McDermott International ( NYSE: MDR), Medicis ( NYSE: MRX), Middleby ( NASDAQ: MIDD), Molson Coors Brewing ( NYSE: TAP), Noven Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ: NOVN), Pacer International ( NASDAQ: PACR), Papa John's Int'l ( NASDAQ: PZZA), Performance Food Group ( NASDAQ: PFGC), PG&E ( NYSE: PCG), Pinnacle Entertainment ( NYSE: PNK), Pioneer Natural Resources ( NYSE: PXD), Playboy Enterprises ( NYSE: PLA), Priceline.com ( NASDAQ: PCLN), Ralcorp Holdings ( NYSE: RAH), ResMed ( NYSE: RMD), Spanish Broadcasting System ( NASDAQ: SBSA), Spectrum Brands ( NYSE: SPC), Steve Madden ( NASDAQ: SHOO), Techne ( NASDAQ: TECH), Tenet Healthcare ( NYSE: TNT), Tyco International ( NYSE: TYC), Universal Compression ( NYSE: UCO), Web.com ( NASDAQ: WWWW), WMS Industries ( NYSE: WMS), Yamana Gold ( NYSE: AUY) and many more.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its regular Purchase Index bright and early on Wednesday morning. Even as treasury yields decline, mortgage rates appear sure to rise further in light of the worsening environment. While banks are lending more carefully, demand for homes also suffers due to concern that prices could drop further. June Wholesale Inventories are set for report at 10:00 a.m., with expectation for a 0.4% rise, according to Bloomberg's consensus. At 10:30, the EIA Petroleum Status Report is due. We plan to write a piece on the sector, discussing the recent divergence of share and commodity prices.

Overseas, the Bank of Australia is expected by many to raise rates Wednesday. Also, World Bank Head Robert Zoellick is set to meet with Asian ministers to discuss regional growth.

General Motors ( NYSE: GM) is scheduled to hold its annual event for analysts on Wednesday, and the earnings schedule includes 1-800-Flowers.com ( NASDAQ: FLWS), Advance Auto Parts ( NYSE: AAP), Allied Capital ( NYSE: ALD), American International Group ( NYSE: AIG), American Mortgage Acceptance ( AMEX: AMC), AmeriCredit ( NYSE: ACF), Autobytel.com ( NASDAQ: ABTL), Barr Pharmaceuticals ( NYSE: BRL), Biovail ( NYSE: BVF), Brightpoint ( NASDAQ: CELL), Capital Senior Living ( NYSE: CSU), Career Education ( NASDAQ: CECO), Coeur d'Alene Mines ( NYSE: CDE), Flowserve ( NYSE: FLS), Foster Wheeler ( NASDAQ: FWLT), Georgia Gulf ( NYSE: GGC), Hansen Natural ( NASDAQ: HANS), Hecla Mining ( NYSE: HL), Home Solutions of America ( NASDAQ: HSOA), Hospira ( NYSE: HSP), IdaCorp ( NYSE: IDA), Jack in the Box ( NYSE: JBX), MTS Medical Technologies ( AMEX: MPP), Neenah Paper ( NYSE: NP), NewStar Financial ( NASDAQ: NEWS), Pacific Ethanol ( NASDAQ: PEIX), Petrohawk Energy ( NYSE: HK), Polo Ralph Lauren ( NYSE: RL), Revlon ( NYSE: REV), Sotheby's ( NYSE: BID), Sprint Nextel ( NYSE: S), Station Casinos ( NYSE: STN), The Knot ( NASDAQ: KNOT), Toll Brothers ( NYSE: TOL), Turkcell ( NYSE: TKC), ViaSat ( NASDAQ: VSAT), Vital Signs ( NASDAQ: VITL), Westar Energy ( NYSE: WR), Xenos Group ( Toronto: XNS.TO), XOMA ( NASDAQ: XOMA) and others.

Thursday starts with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. The measure has hovered close to 300,000 lately, or just a bit higher. However, we continue to expect jobless claims to rise only after the monthly Employment Situation Report reflects meaningful weakness in the labor market. Before businesses start firing, they stop hiring, plain and simply. Therefore, Friday's report may have ominously forecast a coming change in the trend for the weekly new benefits filings. We think so. We expect housing construction to begin to better reflect the realities of the situation. We suspect the data has been fogged by the employment and firing of many illegals by industry participants. We also expect more financial market, retail and consumer oriented businesses to increase layoffs in coming months.

Retailers report chain store sales on Thursday, and recent data indicates mall traffic is down. For the most part, the weekly sales data from the ICSC has not been positive either. Retailers might provide some bad news on Thursday that could sour the taste the Fed serves up. Also notable, Thursday marks the deadline for companies to file their 10Qs with the SEC, so problematic news not presented in corporations' preliminary press releases could surface as a result.

The EIA reports its weekly natural gas inventory on Thursday at 10:30. Markets in Singapore are closed, while Thursday's American earnings reports include 1-800 Contacts ( NASDAQ: CTAC), 4 Kids Entertainment ( NYSE: KDE), Air Methods ( NASDAQ: AIRM), American States Water ( NYSE: AWR), American Superconductor ( NASDAQ: AMSC), AXA ADS ( NYSE: AXA), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ: BCRX), Black Hills ( NYSE: BKH), Briggs & Stratton ( NYSE: BGG), Brinker International ( NYSE: EAT), Brooks Automation ( NASDAQ: BRKS), California Pizza Kitchen ( NASDAQ: CPKI), Cardinal Health ( NYSE: CAH), Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling ( NYSE: CCH), Consolidated Water ( NASDAQ: CWCO), Cosi Inc. ( NASDAQ: COSI), Deutsche Telekom ( NYSE: DT), Dionex ( NASDAQ: DNEX), Dot Hill Systems ( NASDAQ: HILL), Dynegy ( NYSE: DYN), First Marblehead ( NYSE: FMD), Goldcorp ( NYSE: GG), Healthsouth ( NYSE: HLS), Hillenbrand Industries ( NYSE: HB), Holly Corp. ( NYSE: HOC), Luminent Mortgage Capital ( NYSE: LUM), Magna Int'l ( NYSE: MGA), NorthStar Realty Finance ( NYSE: NRF), NVDIA ( NASDAQ: NVDA), Quixote ( NASDAQ: QUIX), Ready Mix ( AMEX: RMX), Speedway Motorsports ( NYSE: TRK), Steak 'n Shake ( NYSE: SNS), Superior Industries ( NYSE: SUP), Syntroleum ( NASDAQ: SYNM), TLC Vision ( NASDAQ: TLCV), Universal Display ( NASDAQ: PANL), Vonage ( NYSE: VG), Wild Oats Markets ( NASDAQ: OATS) and a few others.

Friday will likely factor this week, as three economic news bits come to the fore. July import prices are set for report at 8:30. According to Barron's, Lehman Brothers anticipates a 1.0% rise due to higher petroleum prices. Excluding the impact, Lehman sees prices flat. The RBC Cash Index is due at 9:00 a.m. This is important, as the index measures consumer attitudes and spending. It considers the consumers' view on the economy, personal finance, savings and investment confidence. The metric has been on a general declining trend, reaching bottom just last month when it measured 76.1. Finally, the Federal Budget for July is set for report at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Consensus sees a deficit of $35 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Friday's earnings reports include Aircastle LTD ( NYSE: AYR), Allianz SE ( NYSE: AZ), Carrols Restaurant Group ( NASDAQ: TAST), CryptoLogic ( NASDAQ: CRYP), Dominion Homes ( NASDAQ: DHOM), Hugoton Royalty Trust ( NYSE: HGT), Hydrogenics ( NASDAQ: HYGS), Maine & Maritimes ( AMEX: MAM), North Pointe Holdings ( NASDAQ: NPTE), Novavax ( NASDAQ: NVAX), Sunrise Senior Living ( NYSE: SRZ), United Industrial ( NYSE: UIC), York Water ( NASDAQ: YORW) and more. We hope this edition of our weekly market-moving event planner has proved useful to you.

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