The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.
It started as early as 4:00 AM in some places. It was not a fishing trip or some other event that normally begins at a ridiculously difficult hour. No, it was the start to the shopping season this past BLACK FRIDAY! I participated in the mayhem one wild year, and though it was the most efficient shopping experience of my life, it was also insane. It's all a trick you know... It's commercial America's sly way to get you into the stores for the longest day of shopping history. You get started so early and fueled by the adrenaline rush associated with catching your favorite store's blockbuster deal that you just keep going all day long. And if you miss the morning rush, you know there are still good deals to be had, so you go out anyway. Bah humbug! Keep an eye on the site this week, as I'll be publishing plenty of value-added reports alongside the regular daily market preview.
The Week Ahead...
Monday is data empty following the long holiday weekend. The earnings schedule is also light, including the likes of Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN), Donaldson (NYSE: DCI), EDAP TMS SA (Nasdaq: EDAP), On Track Innovations (Nasdaq: OTIV), Shoe Pavilion (Nasdaq: SHOE), SkillSoft (Nasdaq: SKIL) and Streamline Health Solutions (Nasdaq: STRM).
Tuesday offers the weekly same-store sales data from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Last week's report showed sales only rose 2.2% over the year ago period. This week's data will offer an interesting comparison to last year's week that included Black Friday.
At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board will report the Consumer Confidence Index. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for further deterioration in a reading of 90.5, down from 95.6 in October. Both confidence figures published by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan are at low points for the year, and down significantly from last year's shopping season.
Fed President Charles Plosser is scheduled to address a group at Rochester University on Tuesday. The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index is expected to show further deterioration, and according to Barron's quoted expert from MFR, an acceleration of rate of decline. It's debatable how the market will interpret such information. On the one hand, it clearly means each sale is less profitable for homebuilders. Also, equity values are decreasing for home owners still, and some of these owners may be sitting on homes whose mortgage is larger than the home value, offering incentive to default out of tough loans. On the other hand, lower prices might allow inventory to move at a better rate and bring supply into closer alignment with demand. Eventually, this has to happen for the market to stabilize.
The earnings calendar includes American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Casual Male (Nasdaq: CMRG), Central Garden and Pet (Nasdaq: CENT), Dress Barn (Nasdaq: DBRN), Finlay Enterprises (Nasdaq: FNLY), Gravity (Nasdaq: GRVY), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (NYSE: JTX), Kopin (Nasdaq: KOPN), Linktone (Nasdaq: LTON), Marvell Technology (Nasdaq: MRVL), Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY), Semtech (Nasdaq: SMTC), Sigma Designs (Nasdaq: SIGM), Sonic Solutions (Nasdaq: SNIC), Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Verigy (Nasdaq: VRGY) and a few others.
The data load gets busy on Wednesday, starting with the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting of Purchase Applications. Changes to this data are just not important yet, but they have revealed a stealth refinancing effort as the government and interested parties, including banks set to deal with defaults, do their best to get people into manageable loans. Not everybody agrees on the catalysts though. Countrywide Financial's (NYSE: CFC) CEO Angelo Mozilo would probably argue against the point about government action.
Durable goods orders will be reported for the month of October at 8:30 on Wednesday. Bloomberg's consensus is anticipating a 0.3% month-to-month increase, and this compares to September's decrease of 1.7%. Expectations vary here, and another decrease is not out of the question. For instance, Barron's quoted Lehman Brother's expectation for a 0.7% decline.
At 10:00 AM, look for the pace of Existing Home Sales to have slipped again in October. Bloomberg's consensus forecast expects an annual pace of 4.95 million sales, compared to 5.04 million in the month just prior. A half hour later, all eyes will find the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Last week's report showed a crude oil draw 1.1 million barrels from inventory. At 2:00 pm, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions.
The day's earnings schedule includes Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Beacon Roofing Supply (Nasdaq: BECN), Brown Shoe (NYSE: BWS), CBRL Group (Nasdaq: CBRL), Coldwater Creek (Nasdaq: CWTR), Culp (NYSE: CFI), Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR), Inergy Holdings (Nasdaq: NRGP), Jo-Ann Stores (NYSE: JAS), Men's Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), Oil-Dri Corp. (NYSE: ODC), Sycamore Networks (Nasdaq: SCMR), TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO), White Electronic Designs (Nasdaq: WEDC), XETA Technologies (Nasdaq: XETA) and a few others.
Thursday is power packed full of economic data points. Corporate Profits for the third quarter will be published at 8:30 a.m. The initial reporting of Q3 GDP at 3.9% is expected to be revised up to 4.8% by Bloomberg's group of economists. Though highly publicized and well-anticipated, it will be interesting to see how the Fed-cut-expecting market receives this news. I continue to expect the market to receive a royal slap in the face on December 11th, when the FOMC announcement is made and rates are kept steady.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are seen matching last week's reporting of 330K. New home sales for October are expected to measure at an annual pace of 753K, down from 770K in September. We do not disagree with the direction, though the level could surprise even lower. The EIA Natural Gas Report comes at 10:30, and nat gas is finding support now from a colder than average temperature forecast for the coming week. Bernanke finds a mic at 7 p.m., so stay tuned to the wire in the evening, or read the Greek's Morning Report on Friday, as this could be news worthy.
The earnings reporting schedule includes Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD), ACI Worldwide (Nasdaq: ACIW), American Woodmark (Nasdaq: AMWD), Argon ST (Nasdaq: STST), Atwood Oceanics (NYSE: ATW), Bon-Ton Stores (Nasdaq: BONT), Brocade Communications (Nasdaq: BRCD), Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM), Del Monte Foods (NYSE: DLM), Fred's (Nasdaq: FRED), Genesco (NYSE: GCO), Gerber Scientific (NYSE: GRB), Gottschalks (NYSE: GOT), H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Rex Stores (NYSE: RSC), Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), The Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSLA), Warner Music (NYSE: WMG), Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ) and a few more.
On Friday, the last day of November, Personal Income and Consumption for October are due to be reported. The consensus is looking for a 0.4% increase in income. After Friday's rumor of massive pending layoffs at Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Wall Street generally bracing for a round of job cuts and slim bonuses (by Wall Street terms, but still stellar for most humans the world over), this data might start to look bad along with unemployment in '08. Personal Consumption is expected to increase 0.3%; this is the more important figure to the market on Friday, and any softness could start an unsettling stock drop.
The National Association of Purchasing Managers - Chicago will post its manufacturing report for the Midwest on Friday as well. The consensus is looking for a reading of 49.7. Recall, anything below 50.0 signifies contraction in the business sector. Construction spending for October is expected to have fallen 0.3%, no surprise. However, recall The Greek's forecast from almost a year ago, that construction spending for commercial property will soon follow the path of residential; this based on tighter overall lending standards and lower consumer spending, which should lead to contraction within retail.
At 3:00 pm, look for the farm report, and please see our article published over the holiday weekend, "Secular Change of Food Prices Justify P/E Expansion for Industry Participants." On the Fed tour, St. Louis President Poole and Fed Governor Kroszner are both scheduled to speak on Friday.
The day's earnings schedule includes Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), Kirkland's (Nasdaq: KIRK), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), TRC Companies (NYSE: TRR) and a few more.
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