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| THE HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, Inc. | (NYSE: THG)Add to My Watchlist |
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| Tue, Nov 03, 2009 | ||
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The Hanover Insurance Group Inc. Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript
Question-and-Answer SessionOperator Thank you. Operator Instructions. Our first question comes from Jay Gelb of Barclays Capital. Jay Gelb – Barclays Capital Thanks good morning. Frederick H. Eppinger Jr. Good morning Jay. Jay Gelb – Barclays Capital In terms of the guidance outlook for 2009 being...
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| Fri, Oct 23, 2009 | ||
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15 Hot Dividend Increases
Dividends from a quality, well-diversified portfolio are much more predictable than capital gains and best of all, they are passive.[More...]
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| Mon, Nov 03, 2008 | ||
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6 Dividend Stocks Rewarding Their Shareholders With Higher Payouts
Last week was marked by more volatility which doesn’t seem to surprise anyone. Luckily this time the direction was up as the stock market had its best week since 1974, mainly fueled by the half a percentage point interest cut by the Federal Reserve as well the smaller than expected contraction in the GDP. During those large swings up and down it is easy for investors to lose focus on the big picture and not sticking to their financial plan by converting all of their holdings to cash. Luckily there were several dividend companies that reminded their patient long-term holders that increasing dividend payments could help them out in increasing their total returns over time. Vornado Realty (VNO) announced that its Board has approved a 5.60% increase in its quarterly dividend from $0.90 to $0.95 per common share. Vornado Realty is a <a[More...]
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| Tue, Sep 16, 2008 | ||
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The 50/200 Cross: RIMM, THG, and WFT
We did a scan for “the cross” and found two stocks that might be instructive:[More...]
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| Tue, Apr 29, 2008 | ||
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Wall Street Week Ahead - Best Resiliency Test Yet
Our regularly published Wall Street week ahead article has been engineered to prepare you for the period's scheduled market-moving events. With GDP and the Employment Situation Report on tap, the market will face the toughest test of its resiliency yet starting on Wednesday. The vessel that is the stock market has thus far sailed through some harsh weather, albeit after taking on a flood of water initially as the iceberg of economic reality brushed her port side. This week's first quarter GDP report offers possible confirmation of economic contraction. Economists, while mostly saying one thing in the public forum, quietly hold a consensus expectation for growth in Q1. Is this a pipedream or hot air meant to keep client funds in managed portfolios... we estimate the latter. Despite the published expectation, the market probably anticipates contraction in Q1, so bad news might not shake the ship. The degree of bad news though, could certainly take the titanic under for a moment or two. Since employment lags as an economic indicator, this month's report threatens to be the worst yet. On Friday, the last day of trading heading into the weekend, the potential also exists for sell-off and yet another retest. We'll truly see how slalwart the latest capital surge is through the Wednesday to Friday period. The Week Ahead Monday The first of the tax rebate checks roll out Monday, and not soon enough for many. The Greek's Main Street read of the situation is that things are getting pretty tough out there. Last week's consumer confidence reading might not have been as full of as much overreaction as contrarians want to find in it. There's a strong case to be made for buying stocks when Main Street is sure things are horrible because of the lag of Main Street opinion as an economic indicator. While the first day of the week is devoid of economic data, it will offer the European Commission's spring economic forecasts for 2008-2009. Yanks will be mostly concerned with how this plays for the U.S. dollar. A good portion of the portfolio management community is anticipating the dollar to strengthen against the euro this year, according to Barron's Big Money Poll seen in this week's copy. Also, we should not discount the interest of American exporters in seeing ongoing European economic health (read avoiding recession). The United Nations is starting a semiannual meeting within which it will focus on the food crisis and climate change. Funny (sad actually) how these problems of the future that the majority of us use to ignore have all of sudden become serious to us. Regulators will start a two-day examination of the Bank of America ( Tuesday After Friday's Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, which showed sentiment at its lowest level in more than 25 years, the Conference Board will also report on April consumer confidence Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. Bloomberg's consensus of economists anticipates a measure of 62.0, versus 64.5 when measurement was last taken in March. The ICSC-UBS offers its weekly take on chain-store sales earlier that morning. We recorded the first contraction of weekly same-store sales, on a year-to-year basis, last week and nobody noticed. We view the outlook bleak for the retail space, but the stimulus package rebate checks are coming just in time. The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting Tuesday. Of international interest, Japanese markets will be closed. The heavy earnings schedule includes Advent Software ( Wednesday If one day can define a week, Wednesday looks like the day. The market will get its toughest resiliency test yet when first quarter GDP is reported. Economists are widely discussing recession while quietly maintaining forecasts that indicate otherwise. Bloomberg's consensus of the double-talkers indicates expectations for 0.3% growth this quarter. You can't record recession when you get growth, so one has to wonder if the media is only taking speakers with extreme views, and only the view that sells advertising. It wouldn't be the first time would it... The Greek is saying one thing and forecasting it too. We think Q1 will fall short of the consensus figure, into negative territory. However, we note that we do not have a model or dedicated staff to forecast this figure, and are basing this estimation on our memory of the data we follow on a regular basis and its "contractionary" overtones over the last three months. Don't knock it, as it's perhaps this small distance and our insight that have allowed us to avoid the paralysis that over analysis can lead to sometimes. The Greek is a big fan and beneficiary of due diligence (i.e. doing your homework, but it's equally critical to be able to weed the noise from the important information - insight). Many are good at tracking numbers and plugging them into spreadsheets, while reporting the news, while also poor at forecasting the future based on data knowledge. Also on Wednesday, that favorite group of economic crime fighters we all admire, the Justice League, also known as the Fed and its FOMC, will make its latest decision on its target rates. Most expect the Fed to cut the fed funds target rate by a quarter point, and to also adjust the discount rate lower a quarter point. The tide of market sentiment has definitely turned, and the market now wants to see some caution from the Fed. Commodity prices are really starting to concern the market, so even free money is no longer welcome. The Employment Cost Index for the first quarter is also scheduled for early morning reporting, but what do we want to learn from it? That's the tough question. With all costs rising, don't we want compensation to likewise rise so that Americans can afford to spend money this summer? But, if this very important cost component rises, it could also add to inflation fears, and rightly so. The cost index is expected to have increased by 0.8%, quarter to quarter, in Q1. The ADP Employment Report for April is due for release early Wednesday morning, but the GDP figure will render it mute just fifteen minutes after. Still, the prelude to the Employment Situation Report on Friday is widely followed and very important. At 9:45 a.m., the National Association of Purchasing Managers - Chicago will offer its Business Barometer Index, with expectations for a measurement of 47.5 for April. That compares to 48.2 in March, both measures indicating economic contraction (sub - 50.0). Wednesday's busy slate will also contain the regular mortgage activity and petroleum status reports, as well as the Farm Prices Report at 3:00 p.m. No shortage of information to swallow on Wednesday, so we'll offer a wrap up of the data and its consequences Wednesday evening. The earnings schedule will not let up either, with news arriving from: Akamai Technologies ( Thursday Take a breath and get ready for another heavy dose of economic data on Thursday. The first bit of news arrives at 6:00 a.m. with the Monster Employment Index, followed by the 7:30 reporting of the Challenger Job-Cut Report. We do not expect to see significant improvement or reason to celebrate arriving from any of the jobs data. Weekly initial jobless claims are set for release also, with consensus expectations set at 360K. We saw a bit of a break off from this year's trend last week, but we would not expect that to prove any indication of inflection point. Employment measures should lag other indicators, and they've just started to deteriorate over the last few months. Personal Income and Outlays are set for 8:30 release, and this very important barometer will offer insight into the status and spending habits of the American consumer. Bloomberg pegs expectations for the March measurement at increases of 0.3% for both income and consumption. Both these figures would prove reassuring to the stock market if they prove true. Motor vehicle sales are also set for release and will provide some information on the big ticket spending habits of Americans. Despite Ford's ( The Institute for Supply Management will issue its Manufacturing Index for April at 10:00 a.m. Bloomberg's consensus indicates a measurement of 48.0, versus last month's measure of 48.6, again both indicating economic contraction. Manufacturing showed early weakness in this economic downturn, despite the benefits of a weak dollar for multinationals based in the U.S. Construction spending, due for release at 10:00 a.m., will likely get lost in the flood of data. This is a been there, done that bit of news, and the market will find no surprise in poor result and no hope in positive surprise, in our estimation. Bloomberg's consensus is expecting construction spending to have declined 0.9% in March, after a decrease of 0.3% in February. Thursday's earnings schedule includes Affiliated Computer ( Friday We would be remiss not to focus on the Employment Situation Report, which has the ability to undo or make the entire trading week. As recession likely takes grip of the economy, portfolio managers the world over will closely monitor the employment situation to take measure of the possible depth of decline. If employers can withstand a bit, consumer spending might also recover sooner. Still, in a competitive marketplace, with margins getting squeezed from the cost of component commodities and energy, corporations are most likely to place the good of their firm ahead of the good of the whole, for their job's sake. We anticipate the employment situation will deteriorate further through most, if not all of the year. Bloomberg's compilation of experts sees a loss of 75,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate slipping to 5.2% from 5.1% the month before. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3%. Factory orders, due for release at 10:00 a.m., are expected to have increased 0.3% in March, after a 1.3% decrease in February. The earnings schedule includes Agrium ( Please see our disclosure at the Wall Street Greek website. 
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| Mon, Jul 30, 2007 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead: Panic Room
The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for events that could impact your portfolio this week.
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Wall Street Greek
Traders are calling the week a "touch and go." So, should we head to the "panic room" or is there still room to panic? There are two questions to answer before we make that choice. The first question to ask - is the assumption that a credit crunch is possible correct, and we think so. Secondly, if correct, is it happening now, or is the market just anticipating it early. If the market is simply foreshadowing what is to come, stocks could hold here or even improve. However, if it recovers, it will rise having left you a message to heed. We think a crunch is occurring, but if there are no stories this week of an LBO deal gone bad or large hedge fund going under, the market could get a pass. If one of those two things happens though, the confirmation it provides would bring the sellers back in force, we think. As I write this week's copy, Asian markets have opened lower Monday morning, but not "panic room" lower. It's become clear to global traders that the U.S. market still pretty much dictates the world's trading direction. So, the mantra in Hong Kong and Tokyo these days is probably, "why panic until we see how America opens." And then there's the Chinese mainland market, which is as defiant as ever. The CSI 300 Index is trading some 2.0% higher Monday, through midday. I'm sure a good amount of Chinese investors are not even aware of what is unfolding in America, what with the communist iron curtain in place and all. Besides, the rate of inflation still makes holding cash a losing deal in Shanghai, so what else are you going to do with your yuan when faced with five different brokers selling you the recent stellar Chinese market performance record. Even as I know readers are intently focused on this week's copy for insight into the current situation, I have a difficult time not looking forward a few months. This week, Barron's covered the dangers of a credit crunch and the risk in emerging market shares, two critical topics of the day. But we wrote about them long ago in our issues, " The Greek's Week Ahead - Emerging Market Glam" and " The Greek's Week Ahead - When the Liquidity Dries." We didn't miss rising risk spreads either. So, now that all that we spoke of months ago is considered current, we have a tendency to want to move forward. The problem is, we know you want more about the here and now. You're really worried about the week ahead, and we're going to try to help walk you through it. Everybody wants to know if this is it. Is it time to panic? To this we respond, never panic! We know from experience that there is value added by adrenaline in times of danger, but panic never does you any good. Preparedness and thoughtful decision-making will work in your favor while others panic. That said, there are three clear issues that could set the market into full-scale panic mode this week, and you should be aware of them. One of the three is not specific to the week, but may show it's ugly head anyhow. There are concerns on the street about the investment banks' exposure to the subprime space and to LBO loan commitments. According to Barron's article "Ouch!", Banks and Wall Street firms are committed to fund over $200 billion of LBOs this year. With risk spreads rising, value is destroyed, but the banks are committed. With buyers likely to remain scarce, I-banks may be big losers soon. Deutsche Bank ( HSBC Holdings Plc., whose ADRs trade in New York under ( Let's take a look at the week ahead... Earnings rule the day on Monday, with no important key economic data scheduled. Pfizer ( Tuesday has the potential to provide a surprise punch to the nose of investors. June Consumer Spending will be reported at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for growth of just 0.2% month-to-month. However, some are speculating that lower vehicle sales may lead spending growth to an even lower level. Spending increased 0.5% in May, and Wall Street Greek sees the possibility for a decrease in spending in June. We believe that in light of the current sensitive state of the market, such a result could make an important impact. This is all based on the consumer-softening scenario we have laid out so many times here. Briefly, an increasing cost of living globally should impact consumer spending, in our view. There's only so much an overlevered consumer can handle before he gives. We believe there are already signs of consumers moving down price categories in order to save more. For instance, we see traffic moving from the casual dining space into fast food. We expect the ICSC-UBS Weekly Same-Store Sales Report, which precedes the spending report, will only provide more evidence for the case we have been making for months, that the consumer is softening. The consumer is the foundation of our economic growth, and if that pillar of strength is weakened, we expect a state of recession and perhaps stagflation would ensue. Personal income is seen increasing 0.6%, versus 0.4% in May, as it rides on the shoulders of relatively strong job growth. Still, healthy employment growth implies wage inflation risk, which is a major concern of the Fed. The Employment Cost Index will add some color to that picture on Tuesday morning. The consensus expects second quarter growth of 0.9% over Q1. The first quarter saw growth of 0.8% over the fourth quarter of 2006, and 3.5% annual growth. The Conference Board is scheduled to provide its Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 a.m., with the consensus expecting confidence to post a rise in July to 105, from the year's low point of 103.9 in June. This figure may be meaningless, as confidence is sure to slip should current economic concerns and market weakness persist. June construction spending is expected to have risen 0.4% from May. It surprisingly increased 0.9% in May. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index will also be reported Tuesday. Recent data showed new home price values declining, while existing homes prices had actually strengthened. Existing homes make up a much larger portion of the market, so we would expect prices to be flat to higher. Also the National Association of Purchasing Managers - Chicago will publish its index. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for a measure of 58, down from June's 60.2. Two key financial system representatives will have microphones on Tuesday and could drive market activity. Treasury Secretary Paulson will meet with China's President Hu Jintao to discuss currency and product safety issues. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox will testify to the Senate Banking Committee. Tuesday's earnings reports include Alcan ( On Wednesday at its usual time, the Mortgage Banker's Association will report its Purchase Index, providing information about the state of new mortgage originations and refinancings. Some key employment data will reach market on Wednesday. ADP provides its private employment report. Last time around, ADP reported a month-to-month increase of roughly 97,000 for May. The Challenger Job Cut Report is due for release the same day, and last month showed announced layoffs of 55,726. We think it's about time the employment situation starts wavering. We expect the retail and construction sectors to lead the way lower on employment. The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to show a July reading of 55.0, compared to June's 56. We have continued to express our view that manufacturing will follow the lead of other sectors of the economy, as manufacturing is buoyed by a weak dollar and global demand. Even so, some of the large-cap multinational stars of Q1 have not been quite so impressive in Q2, allowing this correction to occur. Pending home sales for June are set for release as well. May's figure declined 3.5%. Finally, motor vehicle sales are expected to reach 12.2 million in July, versus 11.6 million in June. Indeed, Ford ( Wednesdays earnings reports include Allergan ( Overseas on Thursday, the Bank of England and the ECB are both expected to leave rates at current levels. In light of recent events, this makes perfect sense. Tightening credit at this point only further stresses the market and liquidity. The Monster Employment Index will help investors gain further insight into the employment picture, as will the weekly initial jobless claims report, also due out Thursday. Monster's June report measured 186, which matched May's figure. It may still be too early for this metric to show a softening employment outlook. Jobless claims are expected to rise to 310,000. It's new job growth that we have our eye on. That's where the first signs of weakness in the employment environment should show their ugly heads. June Factory Orders are expected to rise 0.1%, better than May's decline of 0.5%. The EIA Natural Gas Report shook up the nat gas market last week, and this week should be no less dramatic. Thursday's earnings reports include Activision ( The big news on Friday comes from the Department of Labor. The Employment Status Report is expected to show an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 125,000 in July. Wall Street Greek believes we could start to see important changes in the retail and construction sectors in this month's report. In other words, the number could come in light, and we would look to this as an early tangible sign economic growth would likely weaken in the second half of the year. Unemployment is seen steady at 4.5%, while average hourly wages are expected to post a 0.3% month-to-month increase. In other news, ISM's Nonmanufacturing Survey is seen measuring 58.5 in July, versus 60.7 in June. We expect this metric to also begin to show a weakening trend after early signals. Friday's earnings reports include Allianz SE ( Receive Wall Street Greek via email by subscribing here . If you change your mind, it's easy to unsubscribe. We respect your privacy and will not share your information with any third party. ( disclosure ) Related Articles:
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