The U.S. dollar (USD) seems to have found short-term support at the 77.5 level. However, while the USD is not declining at the moment, I don't believe it is going to be able to bounce back above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level it is under---barring an outrageously bad unemployment announcement from the U.S. on Friday. Gold - Gold prices haven't been able to crack resistance at $965, but if they do, watch for a move up to at least $990---the high reached in early June. Oil - Oil prices are stuck just above $70 per barrel and may consolidate there for some time. VIX - The VIX remains near its lowest levels since last September and doesn't look like it will break above resistance at 26. Commodities - The Rogers Commodity Index has bounced back to resistance at 21.5---the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level---and looks to be consolidating there. Federal Funds Futures Contract - Investors show they don't believe the Fed is anywhere close to raising interest rates in the U.S.
| | | {loadposition livevideopromo} | | | | | | | | | {loadposition contentad} | | | | | Check out how Gold, Oil and the VIX are doing in the video below. Gold - There are many factors that affect the supply and demand for gold. It is a shelter against inflation and will typically rise in prices when the USD is inflating or falling in value compared to other major currencies. Like most commodities it can also rise in price during economic expansions and will often decline during contractions with other commodity prices. However, gold is also a hedge against uncertainty. It is what is often called a "store of value." Assets that qualify as a store of value include a few commodities and some currencies, particularly the USD. Store of value assets will rise in value as demand picks up during economic crises. That is the situation the world is dealing with right now. You can invest directly in gold using exchange-traded funds (ETFs), like the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). GLD seeks to strive to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. GLD holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the Trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation. Oil - Oil prices are rising in the futures market and oil companies are performing well in the stock exchange. A combination of rising inflation expectations and anticipated economic growth is likely driving the strong performance. When a trend like this emerges, investors will seek ways to profit from the opportunity. Many individual investors are unaware of how easy it is to invest directly in oil itself. You can invest directly in oil using exchange-traded funds (ETFs), like United States Oil Fund LP (USO). USO seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. USO will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil. USO is nondiversified. VIX - The VIX is often nicknamed the "fear index" which is actually somewhat misleading since it doesn't directly measure fear of any kind. TheVIX is actually a measure of trader's expectations about volatility in the S&P 500. The VIX is charted like an index and the higher it goes the higher trader's expectations are for short term market volatility. The VIX rises with higher market volatility because it measures the prices of the out of the money S&P 500 index options. If option sellers think volatility is going to increase (in the near term) they will require larger premiums from option buyers. This increase in option prices is used in the calculation for the VIX index. Conversely, if traders think volatility is going to drop option sellers will have to reduce premiums to attract buyers. Falling option prices will be reflected in a falling VIX index. You can invest directly in the VIX using exchange-traded notes (ETNs), like the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). VXX seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Total Return Index. VXX offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The index futures roll continuously throughout each month from the first month VIX futures contract into the second month VIX futures contract. |