Key Points:
•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.26, almost double normal
•    Median Earnings Surprise 7.20%, very strong
•    Year-over-year Earnings Growth Ratio (# Pos Growth/# Neg Growth) at 0.80
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.44
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.43
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.1% below what those same 478 firms reported a year ago, 10.3% above what they earned in 2Q09
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues reported so far down 10.9% year over year, up 3.4% from 2Q09
•    2009 Earnings Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 falls to 3.00, down from 3.25 last week, still very high
•    2010 ratio at 1.98, down slightly from 2.09 last week
•    S&P500 expected to earn $574.1 billion in 2008, $707.3 billion in 2010
•    Bottom Up estimates: $62.57 for 2009, $77.11 for 2010
•    Top Down estimates: $54.38 for 2009, $70.05 for 2010

Welcome to the new Earnings Trends. We have decided to start focusing our analysis of the S&P 500 based on Zacks' own sector groupings rather than the S&P GICS sectors. There are 16 Zacks sectors and only 10 GICS sectors, so the new groupings will result in better granularity of the data. The old way simply grouped too many very different companies together. In addition, we for the first time are presenting top-line as well as bottom-line expectations and surprise information. This is very much of a work in progress, and we will be adding additional information, tables and perhaps even some graphs over the next few months.

It’s almost time to close the books on a fantastic earnings season. With over 95% of reports in, there have been 363 which have exceeded expectations while only 69 have fallen short, a ratio of 5.26. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed their earnings estimates. The median surprise is a very high 7.20%. Over the last five years, a median surprise of about 3.0% has been normal. Part of the reason is that expectations were set very low going into the earnings season.

For most companies, their earnings are still below year-ago levels, just not as far down as people thought they would be. Only 213 firms have posted positive year-over-year growth versus 265 which have fallen short of year-ago levels, a ratio of 0.80.

The disparity between firms beating estimates but having negative year-over year-earnings growth is particularly noticeable in Tech, where the earnings surprise ratio is an awesome 7.57. However, the growth ratio (# of firms with positive growth/# of firms with negative growth) is just 0.64. Energy’s surprise ratio is not quite as high, at 3.22, but the disparity to its growth ratio, at just 0.53, is extreme. Staples and Medical have been both growing earnings and beating expectations.

On the top line, it has also been a successful season so far relative to expectations, but in terms of actual year-over-year growth it has been downright ugly. The total revenues of the 478 firms that have reported are 11.1% below year-ago levels. A total of 267 firms have reported higher-than-expected revenues, versus 185 that have disappointed, for a ratio of 1.44.

On the other hand, only 143 actually had higher sales than a year ago, versus 335 with lower revenues, a ratio of 0.43. Put another way, only 29.9% of all firms reporting so far have had higher sales than a year ago.

In other words, cost-cutting has been the major force driving earnings and earnings surprise. However, the costs to one company are either the revenues of another company, or someone’s paycheck, which is then spent to create revenues for firms.

The bottom-up data coming out of all these individual firms seems to confirm what we have been getting from the macro statistics from the government: the economy is growing due to increases in productivity. There is higher GDP with fewer workers. While clearly companies cannot continue to grow earnings forever based only on cost-cutting, it does mean that when they do start to see revenue growth, earnings growth could be explosive as the greater operating leverage kicks in.

The strategy seems to be working as earnings are coming in much better than expected, and analysts have responded by increasing earnings estimates for 2009. The estimate increases are widespread across sectors, with four sectors seeing more than six increases for each cut.

No sector is seeing more cuts than increases. For the S&P 500 as a whole, the revisions ratio now stands at 3.00, which while slightly lower than a few weeks ago, is still very high and in distinct contrast to earlier in the year when it fell below 0.15 at one point. The better-than-expected earnings are translating into estimate increases for 2010 as well as 2009, with a revisions ratio of 1.98 for next year.

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
•    Season almost over - 478, or 95.6% of reports in
•    Data presented reflects only firms that have reported so far
•    Reports so far extremely positive relative to expectations
•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.26
•    Medical almost perfect with a ratio of 35 to 1, Staples strong with a ratio of 11.7
•    Median Earnings Surprise 7.20%, very strong reading
•    Eight sectors total done, a few Retail and Staples firms yet to report
•    Year-over-year Earnings Growth Ratio (# Positive Growth/# Negative Growth) at 0.80
•    Massive positive surprises in cyclical Construction, Industrial and Discretionary sectors

In evaluating the data presented here, keep the percent reported in mind; for some sectors the sample size is extremely small. The move to the 16 Zacks sectors means that even when all reports are in, some of the sectors will still have relatively few firms in them. For firms with only a few reports in, the median surprise will be very volatile as new firms are added to the sample.

Overall, two small sectors, Conglomerates and Business Services, appear to have the most impressive performance so far this quarter on the surprise front. Among the larger sectors, strong arguments could be made for Staples having the best surprise profile, although Industrials are also in contention. 

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
Income Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	% Reported	Surprise Median	EPS Surp Pos	EPS Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Conglomerates	-21.64%	100.00%	16.41	8	0	1	8
Industrial Products	-25.90%	90.91%	13.92	19	1	9	11
Consumer Discretionary	-14.07%	100.00%	12.10	22	5	8	22
Construction	76.05%	100.00%	11.85	6	4	5	6
Consumer Staples	1.65%	86.36%	11.85	35	3	26	12
Business Service	6.73%	88.89%	11.81	7	0	2	6
Computer and Tech	-11.58%	92.77%	7.69	53	7	30	47
Basic Materials	-47.72%	100.00%	6.74	14	4	4	16
Aerospace	-59.63%	100.00%	6.74	8	2	4	6
Medical	3.32%	95.45%	5.86	35	1	33	9
Utilities	5.56%	100.00%	5.64	27	8	23	14
Retail/Wholesale	2.62%	93.33%	5.41	34	5	24	18
Finance	416.90%	100.00%	5.41	56	16	39	39
Oils and Energy	-62.76%	97.56%	5.20	29	9	2	38
Transportation	-36.21%	100.00%	3.09	7	2	1	9
Auto	183.55%	100.00%	1.54	3	2	2	4
S&P	-11.05%	95.60%	7.20	363	69	213	265

Sales Surprises
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.44
•    Staples missing on Sales even as they beat on earnings
•    Tech looks terrific, 3.33 sales surprise ratio
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.43
•    Most Tech firms have declining sales, but less of a drop than expected
•    Under 30% of all firms reporting so far have higher revenues than last year

Sales Surprises
Sales Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	% Reported	Surprise Median	Sales Surp Pos	Sales Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Computer and Tech	-5.98%	92.77%	2.40	60	18	18	60
Finance	22.49%	100.00%	1.23	33	19	33	44
Medical	4.86%	95.45%	1.15	31	11	34	7
Auto	-11.94%	100.00%	1.08	6	0	0	6
Consumer Discretionary	-10.07%	100.00%	0.92	21	9	7	23
Business Service	-6.73%	88.89%	0.84	5	3	3	5
Retail/Wholesale	1.39%	93.33%	0.53	28	14	23	19
Conglomerates	-16.29%	100.00%	0.45	5	3	1	8
Oils and Energy	-40.56%	97.56%	0.42	22	18	3	37
Basic Materials	-28.79%	100.00%	0.25	11	9	1	19
Industrial Products	-18.55%	90.91%	-0.06	10	10	1	19
Consumer Staples	-7.10%	86.36%	-0.10	16	21	9	29
Transportation	-19.93%	100.00%	-0.36	3	7	0	10
Construction	-27.47%	100.00%	-0.88	5	6	0	11
Aerospace	4.64%	100.00%	-1.73	3	7	7	3
Utilities	-18.59%	100.00%	-12.59	8	30	3	35
S&P	-10.90%	95.60%	0.53	267	185	143	335

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
•    Massive 416.9% growth in Financials due to low year-ago base, earnings up 3.1% from 2Q09
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.1% below what those same 478 firms reported a year ago, 10.3% above what they earned in the 2Q09
•    Going into the quarter, a decline of 23% was forecast for total year-over-year earnings
•    Positive yr/yr growth for 8 sectors, negative for 8, Energy, Aerospace and Materials lag
•    Materials down hard year over year in second and third quarters, but expects huge rebound in the 4Q
•    Total net earnings in 4Q expected to be more than double from a year ago, mostly due to the turnaround in Finance.

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
Income Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Finance	-24.45%	3.14%	416.90%	130.87%	-4.93%
Auto	-41.90%	401.81%	183.55%	126.27%	-744.07%
Construction	-20.86%	-24.52%	76.05%	66.44%	44.84%
Business Service	-13.93%	12.48%	6.73%	2.33%	-1.93%
Utilities	-37.89%	46.82%	5.56%	-1.37%	-2.02%
Medical	-9.85%	5.47%	3.32%	-6.67%	1.44%
Retail/Wholesale	19.09%	-7.12%	2.62%	8.67%	-4.48%
Consumer Staples	-16.45%	5.09%	1.65%	-1.77%	6.95%
Computer and Tech	17.78%	12.70%	-11.58%	18.95%	-21.73%
Consumer Discretionary	-0.16%	24.55%	-14.07%	3.10%	-18.18%
Conglomerates	-13.18%	-1.66%	-21.64%	-9.17%	-29.50%
Industrial Products	-24.91%	20.32%	-25.90%	-25.26%	-43.38%
Transportation	3.91%	11.58%	-36.21%	-29.26%	-35.44%
Basic Materials	-19.51%	50.30%	-47.72%	478.27%	-69.62%
Aerospace	150.29%	-60.94%	-59.63%	5.34%	-1.53%
Oils and Energy	5.85%	25.99%	-62.76%	-28.13%	-66.99%
S&P	-4.06%	10.28%	-11.05%	105.69%	-25.53%

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues down 10.9% year over year, up 3.43% from 2Q09
•    Year-over-year revenue expected to turn positive in 4Q with a 1.50% increase
•    Energy, Autos see large yr/yr declines but the biggest sequential increases
•    Finance clear yr/yr winner; Medical, Aerospace up modestly.
•    Four sectors posting positive yr/yr revenue growth, 12 sectors negative
•    Sequentially, only Staples and Conglomerates see minor declines

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues
Sales Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Finance	-15.32%	2.40%	22.49%	23.83%	4.04%
Medical	4.32%	0.91%	4.86%	8.51%	2.80%
Aerospace	6.72%	-2.14%	4.64%	12.62%	2.18%
Retail/Wholesale	8.83%	0.29%	1.39%	3.69%	-0.93%
Computer and Tech	6.75%	2.87%	-5.98%	2.94%	-9.98%
Business Service	-1.50%	3.00%	-6.73%	-3.53%	-10.84%
Consumer Staples	-6.16%	-0.53%	-7.10%	-7.35%	-8.04%
Consumer Discretionary	4.68%	7.28%	-10.07%	-5.08%	-14.18%
Auto	-2.66%	11.99%	-11.94%	-0.79%	-30.44%
Conglomerates	4.73%	-0.78%	-16.29%	-9.24%	-17.47%
Industrial Products	0.26%	1.57%	-18.55%	-12.43%	-22.16%
Utilities	12.42%	10.93%	-18.59%	6.56%	-14.02%
Transportation	3.46%	4.63%	-19.93%	-10.20%	-21.46%
Construction	-3.16%	3.39%	-27.47%	-18.48%	-31.24%
Basic Materials	0.02%	5.31%	-28.79%	-3.39%	-34.50%
Oils and Energy	-4.80%	11.15%	-40.56%	-9.38%	-45.27%
S&P	2.56%	3.43%	-10.90%	1.50%	-15.30%

Annual Total Net Income Growth
•    Total S&P 500 Net Income in 2009 expected to be 4.7% below 2008 levels
•    Total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 23.2% in 2010, 17.3% further in 2011
•    Total earnings in 2010 to still be below 2007 levels
•    Data for 2011 is still thin, so take with a grain of salt
•    Staples, Medical and Business Services are the only sectors to see positive growth for 2009, although Finance is moving from a loss to a profit. Autos, Construction to see much smaller losses in 2009, move to profit in 2010

Annual Total Net Income Growth
EPS Growth	2008	2009	2010	2011
Business Service	14.27%	4.30%	14.19%	22.73%
Medical	9.12%	2.56%	9.07%	9.39%
Consumer Staples	-2.51%	1.19%	11.74%	7.60%
Utilities	5.84%	-0.96%	9.93%	10.51%
Retail/Wholesale	7.05%	-3.19%	11.51%	13.07%
Computer and Tech	9.82%	-5.28%	19.17%	3.20%
Consumer Discretionary	6.94%	-9.19%	10.98%	15.55%
Aerospace	13.29%	-16.60%	19.74%	7.19%
Transportation	3.72%	-32.12%	23.07%	19.07%
Conglomerates	-11.00%	-33.13%	-0.39%	22.06%
Industrial Products	7.49%	-36.93%	21.07%	-5.59%
Oils and Energy	20.41%	-56.96%	45.46%	23.83%
Basic Materials	-12.35%	-62.05%	90.64%	24.10%
Construction	+ to -	-91.41%	- to +	174.96%
Auto	+ to -	-93.84%	- to +	90.23%
Finance	+ to -	- to +	51.91%	48.00%
S&P	-22.70%	-4.72%	23.21%	17.31%

Annual Total Revenue Growth
•    Total S&P 500 Revenue in 2009 expected to be 9.4% below 2008 levels
•    Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 7.0% in 2010
•    Only 4 sectors to post positive revenue growth in '09; all but Finance expected to be positive in 2010
•    For 2009, revenues fall more than earnings; for 2010, earnings rise faster than sales - both mean big margin expansion
•    Energy, Autos, Materials and Construction see biggest revenue declines in 2009, but will see large increases in 2010.

Annual Total Revenue Growth
Sales Growth	2008	2009	2010
Finance	-22.57%	7.13%	-1.13%
Aerospace	2.26%	6.49%	1.92%
Medical	7.73%	4.89%	8.34%
Retail/Wholesale	6.20%	4.01%	5.23%
Computer and Tech	6.60%	-3.65%	5.91%
Utilities	11.81%	-4.17%	10.52%
Consumer Staples	1.74%	-8.91%	4.74%
Consumer Discretionary	5.22%	-9.47%	3.60%
Business Service	9.14%	-9.80%	4.08%
Conglomerates	6.32%	-14.08%	0.08%
Transportation	8.09%	-16.31%	7.00%
Industrial Products	10.76%	-16.57%	6.01%
Construction	-25.81%	-23.68%	9.91%
Auto	-8.23%	-25.24%	5.67%
Basic Materials	11.50%	-25.25%	12.37%
Oils and Energy	24.34%	-36.82%	23.10%
S&P	4.21%	-9.43%	6.97%

Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 down to 3.00, from 3.25
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2009
•    Four sectors seem more than 6 estimate increases for each cut
•    No sector seeing estimates cut on balance
•    Industrials, Autos seeing very large estimate increases
•    Business Service and Conglomerates lead; Retail, Staples and Tech also strong
•    Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates falls to 2.82 from 3.18
•    Total number of revisions (4 week total) down to 4,388 from 4,810 last week (-8.8%)
•    Increases down to 3,291 from 3,677 (10.5%), cuts down to 1,097 from 1,133 (3.2%)
•    Total Revisions activity past peak for this earnings season, will fall sharply over next few weeks

Analysts are responding to better-than-expected 3Q earnings by raising 2009 estimates almost across the board. Unlike the data presented above for the surprises, the revisions data is for all 500 firms in the index. Total revisions activity has picked up dramatically, and will continue to do so over the next week or two, but we are getting towards peak activity..

The broad increases in earnings estimates seems to reflect a much better short-term outlook for the economy. Note that some of the most cyclical areas such as Retailers, Materials and Autos are seeing a large preponderance of upward over downward earnings revisions, and that most of the firms in those sectors are seeing their consensus estimates increase.

On the other hand, the defensive Staples sector has a very high revisions ratio of 8.55, so it’s not just the cyclicals. Then again, given the great performance by the Staples on the surprise front, a strong estimate revisions performance is not surprising.

One industry that has seen some remarkable increases in their estimates for both this year and next is the Semiconductor Equipment industry, with firms like Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA-Tencor (KLAC) and Novellus (NVLS) all seeing no estimates cut and double-digit numbers of increases leading to very large percentage gains in their mean estimates. Those are what one might term new economy cyclicals. Many of the old economy cyclicals like Ford (F) and Cummins Engine (CMI) have also seen large estimate increases.

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
Sector	%Ch Curr Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Business Service	3.42	8	0	66	4	16.50	NM
Conglomerates	1.8	7	1	66	5	13.20	7.00
Retail/Wholesale	3.4	32	9	405	51	7.94	3.56
Consumer Staples	2.07	30	7	218	33	6.61	4.29
Computer and Tech	5.15	62	15	620	141	4.40	4.13
Consumer Discretionary	5.12	24	5	207	64	3.23	4.80
Industrial Products	12.27	16	6	116	38	3.05	2.67
Medical	3.39	31	11	347	117	2.97	2.82
Basic Materials	3.65	14	6	120	41	2.93	2.33
Auto	15.48	5	1	30	11	2.73	5.00
Aerospace	-0.74	6	4	88	35	2.51	1.50
Finance	3.86	54	23	530	235	2.26	2.35
Oils and Energy	1.32	27	14	291	180	1.62	1.93
Utilities	1.34	24	14	98	67	1.46	1.71
Construction	2.85	5	4	39	32	1.22	1.25
Transportation	0.02	5	4	50	43	1.16	1.25
S&P	3.47	350	124	3291	1097	3.00	2.82

Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 edges down to 1.98, from 2.09
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2010, as well as 2009
•    Eclectic mix of strong sectors: Staples lead, followed by Industrials
•    Ratio of firms with rising estimates to falling mean estimates at 2.06, up from 2.05 last week
•    Total number of revisions (4 week total) down to 3,956 from 4,209 last week (-6.0%)
•    Increases down to 2,630 from 2,846 (-7.6%), cuts down to 1,326 from 1,363 (-2.7%)

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
Sector	%Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Consumer Staples	1.84	30	8	191	39	4.90	3.75
Retail/Wholesale	3.02	36	8	335	70	4.79	4.50
Business Service	1.89	6	2	51	11	4.64	3.00
Industrial Products	5.24	14	7	110	30	3.67	2.00
Conglomerates	1.49	7	1	55	21	2.62	7.00
Computer and Tech	3.74	54	21	471	183	2.57	2.57
Consumer Discretionary	1.32	22	7	159	62	2.56	3.14
Basic Materials	-0.05	13	7	97	45	2.16	1.86
Medical	1.55	29	14	255	156	1.63	2.07
Auto	8.20	3	3	21	13	1.62	1.00
Oils and Energy	1.31	28	12	262	183	1.43	2.33
Finance	0.17	46	31	420	309	1.36	1.48
Transportation	0.47	5	4	37	29	1.28	1.25
Construction	0.01	6	5	37	32	1.16	1.20
Aerospace	-0.12	5	5	50	49	1.02	1.00
Utilities	-0.89	17	21	79	94	0.84	0.81
S&P	1.73	321	156	2630	1326	1.98	2.06

Total Income and Share
•    S&P500 expected to earn $574.1 billion in 2008, $707.3 billion in 2010
•    Excluding Financials, total net income expected to be down 19.3% in 2009
•    Energy Share of total earnings plunges to 10.8% in 2009 from 23.8% in 2008
•    Finance share of total earnings moves from deficit in 2008 to 11.8% in 2009, 14.7% in 2010
•    Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight)

Total Income and Share
Sector	Total Net Income $ 2008	Total Net Income $ 2009	Total Net Income $ 2010	% Total S&P Earn 2008	% Total S&P Earn 2009	% Total S&P Earn 2010	% Total S&P Mkt Cap
Computer and Tech	126147	119484	142392	20.94%	20.81%	20.13%	21.98%
Medical	84799	86970	94856	14.07%	15.15%	13.41%	10.77%
Finance	(24629)	67816	103022	-4.09%	11.81%	14.57%	14.65%
Oils and Energy	143589	61804	89900	23.83%	10.77%	12.71%	11.70%
Consumer Staples	54722	55370	61873	9.08%	9.64%	8.75%	8.64%
Retail/Wholesale	56510	54707	61004	9.38%	9.53%	8.62%	9.18%
Consumer Discretionary	34582	31404	34853	5.74%	5.47%	4.93%	5.19%
Utilities	30485	29537	31728	5.06%	5.15%	4.49%	3.68%
Conglomerates	32761	21906	21821	5.44%	3.82%	3.09%	3.62%
Aerospace	15635	13039	15613	2.59%	2.27%	2.21%	1.72%
Industrial Products	18591	11726	14196	3.09%	2.04%	2.01%	2.29%
Transportation	13966	9480	11668	2.32%	1.65%	1.65%	2.11%
Basic Materials	21489	8155	15546	3.57%	1.42%	2.20%	2.60%
Business Service	3202	3339	3813	0.53%	0.58%	0.54%	0.60%
Construction	(3094)	(266)	1131	-0.51%	-0.05%	0.16%	0.51%
Auto	(6225)	(384)	3901	-1.03%	-0.07%	0.55%	0.77%
S&P 500	602532	574088	707317	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%

P/E Ratios
•    S&P 500 trading at 17.5x 2009 earnings, or an earnings yield of 5.71%
•    Trading at 14.2x 2010, 12.1x 2011 earnings, or earnings yields of 7.04% and 8.26, respectively
•    Earnings Yields attractive relative to 10-year T-Note rate of 3.36%
•    Medical has lowest P/E based on 2009 earnings, Aerospace cheapest on 2010 earnings
•    Materials high 2009 P/E to fall dramatically in 2010

P/E Ratios
P/E	2008	2009	2010	2011
Basic Materials	12.1	32	16.8	13.5
Transportation	15.2	22.4	18.2	15.3
Finance	NM	21.7	14.3	9.6
Industrial Products	12.3	19.6	16.2	17.1
Oils and Energy	8.2	19	13.1	10.5
Computer and Tech	17.5	18.4	15.5	15
Business Service	18.7	17.9	15.7	12.8
S&P 500	16.6	17.5	14.2	12.1
Retail/Wholesale	16.3	16.8	15.1	13.3
Consumer Discretionary	15.1	16.6	14.9	12.9
Conglomerates	11.1	16.6	16.7	13.6
Consumer Staples	15.8	15.6	14	13
Aerospace	11	13.2	11	10.3
Utilities	12.1	12.5	11.6	10.8
Medical	12.7	12.4	11.4	10.4
Construction	NM	NM	44.9	16.3
Auto	NM	NM	19.8	10.4

Data in this report, unless stated otherwise, is through the close on Thursday 11/19/2009. Zacks Investment Research

Key Points:
•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.26, almost double normal
•    Median Earnings Surprise 7.20%, very strong
•    Year-over-year Earnings Growth Ratio (# Pos Growth/# Neg Growth) at 0.80
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.44
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.43
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.1% below what those same 478 firms reported a year ago, 10.3% above what they earned in 2Q09
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues reported so far down 10.9% year over year, up 3.4% from 2Q09
•    2009 Earnings Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 falls to 3.00, down from 3.25 last week, still very high
•    2010 ratio at 1.98, down slightly from 2.09 last week
•    S&P500 expected to earn $574.1 billion in 2008, $707.3 billion in 2010
•    Bottom Up estimates: $62.57 for 2009, $77.11 for 2010
•    Top Down estimates: $54.38 for 2009, $70.05 for 2010

Welcome to the new Earnings Trends. We have decided to start focusing our analysis of the S&P 500 based on Zacks' own sector groupings rather than the S&P GICS sectors. There are 16 Zacks sectors and only 10 GICS sectors, so the new groupings will result in better granularity of the data. The old way simply grouped too many very different companies together. In addition, we for the first time are presenting top-line as well as bottom-line expectations and surprise information. This is very much of a work in progress, and we will be adding additional information, tables and perhaps even some graphs over the next few months.

It’s almost time to close the books on a fantastic earnings season. With over 95% of reports in, there have been 363 which have exceeded expectations while only 69 have fallen short, a ratio of 5.26. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed their earnings estimates. The median surprise is a very high 7.20%. Over the last five years, a median surprise of about 3.0% has been normal. Part of the reason is that expectations were set very low going into the earnings season.

For most companies, their earnings are still below year-ago levels, just not as far down as people thought they would be. Only 213 firms have posted positive year-over-year growth versus 265 which have fallen short of year-ago levels, a ratio of 0.80.

The disparity between firms beating estimates but having negative year-over year-earnings growth is particularly noticeable in Tech, where the earnings surprise ratio is an awesome 7.57. However, the growth ratio (# of firms with positive growth/# of firms with negative growth) is just 0.64. Energy’s surprise ratio is not quite as high, at 3.22, but the disparity to its growth ratio, at just 0.53, is extreme. Staples and Medical have been both growing earnings and beating expectations.

On the top line, it has also been a successful season so far relative to expectations, but in terms of actual year-over-year growth it has been downright ugly. The total revenues of the 478 firms that have reported are 11.1% below year-ago levels. A total of 267 firms have reported higher-than-expected revenues, versus 185 that have disappointed, for a ratio of 1.44.

On the other hand, only 143 actually had higher sales than a year ago, versus 335 with lower revenues, a ratio of 0.43. Put another way, only 29.9% of all firms reporting so far have had higher sales than a year ago.

In other words, cost-cutting has been the major force driving earnings and earnings surprise. However, the costs to one company are either the revenues of another company, or someone’s paycheck, which is then spent to create revenues for firms.

The bottom-up data coming out of all these individual firms seems to confirm what we have been getting from the macro statistics from the government: the economy is growing due to increases in productivity. There is higher GDP with fewer workers. While clearly companies cannot continue to grow earnings forever based only on cost-cutting, it does mean that when they do start to see revenue growth, earnings growth could be explosive as the greater operating leverage kicks in.

The strategy seems to be working as earnings are coming in much better than expected, and analysts have responded by increasing earnings estimates for 2009. The estimate increases are widespread across sectors, with four sectors seeing more than six increases for each cut.

No sector is seeing more cuts than increases. For the S&P 500 as a whole, the revisions ratio now stands at 3.00, which while slightly lower than a few weeks ago, is still very high and in distinct contrast to earlier in the year when it fell below 0.15 at one point. The better-than-expected earnings are translating into estimate increases for 2010 as well as 2009, with a revisions ratio of 1.98 for next year.

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
•    Season almost over - 478, or 95.6% of reports in
•    Data presented reflects only firms that have reported so far
•    Reports so far extremely positive relative to expectations
•    Earnings Surprise Ratio (#beat/#miss) at 5.26
•    Medical almost perfect with a ratio of 35 to 1, Staples strong with a ratio of 11.7
•    Median Earnings Surprise 7.20%, very strong reading
•    Eight sectors total done, a few Retail and Staples firms yet to report
•    Year-over-year Earnings Growth Ratio (# Positive Growth/# Negative Growth) at 0.80
•    Massive positive surprises in cyclical Construction, Industrial and Discretionary sectors

In evaluating the data presented here, keep the percent reported in mind; for some sectors the sample size is extremely small. The move to the 16 Zacks sectors means that even when all reports are in, some of the sectors will still have relatively few firms in them. For firms with only a few reports in, the median surprise will be very volatile as new firms are added to the sample.

Overall, two small sectors, Conglomerates and Business Services, appear to have the most impressive performance so far this quarter on the surprise front. Among the larger sectors, strong arguments could be made for Staples having the best surprise profile, although Industrials are also in contention. 

Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
Income Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	% Reported	Surprise Median	EPS Surp Pos	EPS Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Conglomerates	-21.64%	100.00%	16.41	8	0	1	8
Industrial Products	-25.90%	90.91%	13.92	19	1	9	11
Consumer Discretionary	-14.07%	100.00%	12.10	22	5	8	22
Construction	76.05%	100.00%	11.85	6	4	5	6
Consumer Staples	1.65%	86.36%	11.85	35	3	26	12
Business Service	6.73%	88.89%	11.81	7	0	2	6
Computer and Tech	-11.58%	92.77%	7.69	53	7	30	47
Basic Materials	-47.72%	100.00%	6.74	14	4	4	16
Aerospace	-59.63%	100.00%	6.74	8	2	4	6
Medical	3.32%	95.45%	5.86	35	1	33	9
Utilities	5.56%	100.00%	5.64	27	8	23	14
Retail/Wholesale	2.62%	93.33%	5.41	34	5	24	18
Finance	416.90%	100.00%	5.41	56	16	39	39
Oils and Energy	-62.76%	97.56%	5.20	29	9	2	38
Transportation	-36.21%	100.00%	3.09	7	2	1	9
Auto	183.55%	100.00%	1.54	3	2	2	4
S&P	-11.05%	95.60%	7.20	363	69	213	265

Sales Surprises
•    Sales Surprise Ratio at 1.44
•    Staples missing on Sales even as they beat on earnings
•    Tech looks terrific, 3.33 sales surprise ratio
•    Sales Growth Ratio at just 0.43
•    Most Tech firms have declining sales, but less of a drop than expected
•    Under 30% of all firms reporting so far have higher revenues than last year

Sales Surprises
Sales Surprises	Yr/Yr Growth	% Reported	Surprise Median	Sales Surp Pos	Sales Surp Neg	# Grow Pos	# Grow Neg
Computer and Tech	-5.98%	92.77%	2.40	60	18	18	60
Finance	22.49%	100.00%	1.23	33	19	33	44
Medical	4.86%	95.45%	1.15	31	11	34	7
Auto	-11.94%	100.00%	1.08	6	0	0	6
Consumer Discretionary	-10.07%	100.00%	0.92	21	9	7	23
Business Service	-6.73%	88.89%	0.84	5	3	3	5
Retail/Wholesale	1.39%	93.33%	0.53	28	14	23	19
Conglomerates	-16.29%	100.00%	0.45	5	3	1	8
Oils and Energy	-40.56%	97.56%	0.42	22	18	3	37
Basic Materials	-28.79%	100.00%	0.25	11	9	1	19
Industrial Products	-18.55%	90.91%	-0.06	10	10	1	19
Consumer Staples	-7.10%	86.36%	-0.10	16	21	9	29
Transportation	-19.93%	100.00%	-0.36	3	7	0	10
Construction	-27.47%	100.00%	-0.88	5	6	0	11
Aerospace	4.64%	100.00%	-1.73	3	7	7	3
Utilities	-18.59%	100.00%	-12.59	8	30	3	35
S&P	-10.90%	95.60%	0.53	267	185	143	335

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
•    Massive 416.9% growth in Financials due to low year-ago base, earnings up 3.1% from 2Q09
•    Total Net Income for S&P 500 reported so far is 11.1% below what those same 478 firms reported a year ago, 10.3% above what they earned in the 2Q09
•    Going into the quarter, a decline of 23% was forecast for total year-over-year earnings
•    Positive yr/yr growth for 8 sectors, negative for 8, Energy, Aerospace and Materials lag
•    Materials down hard year over year in second and third quarters, but expects huge rebound in the 4Q
•    Total net earnings in 4Q expected to be more than double from a year ago, mostly due to the turnaround in Finance.

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
Income Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Finance	-24.45%	3.14%	416.90%	130.87%	-4.93%
Auto	-41.90%	401.81%	183.55%	126.27%	-744.07%
Construction	-20.86%	-24.52%	76.05%	66.44%	44.84%
Business Service	-13.93%	12.48%	6.73%	2.33%	-1.93%
Utilities	-37.89%	46.82%	5.56%	-1.37%	-2.02%
Medical	-9.85%	5.47%	3.32%	-6.67%	1.44%
Retail/Wholesale	19.09%	-7.12%	2.62%	8.67%	-4.48%
Consumer Staples	-16.45%	5.09%	1.65%	-1.77%	6.95%
Computer and Tech	17.78%	12.70%	-11.58%	18.95%	-21.73%
Consumer Discretionary	-0.16%	24.55%	-14.07%	3.10%	-18.18%
Conglomerates	-13.18%	-1.66%	-21.64%	-9.17%	-29.50%
Industrial Products	-24.91%	20.32%	-25.90%	-25.26%	-43.38%
Transportation	3.91%	11.58%	-36.21%	-29.26%	-35.44%
Basic Materials	-19.51%	50.30%	-47.72%	478.27%	-69.62%
Aerospace	150.29%	-60.94%	-59.63%	5.34%	-1.53%
Oils and Energy	5.85%	25.99%	-62.76%	-28.13%	-66.99%
S&P	-4.06%	10.28%	-11.05%	105.69%	-25.53%

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues
•    Total S&P 500 Revenues down 10.9% year over year, up 3.43% from 2Q09
•    Year-over-year revenue expected to turn positive in 4Q with a 1.50% increase
•    Energy, Autos see large yr/yr declines but the biggest sequential increases
•    Finance clear yr/yr winner; Medical, Aerospace up modestly.
•    Four sectors posting positive yr/yr revenue growth, 12 sectors negative
•    Sequentially, only Staples and Conglomerates see minor declines

Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues
Sales Growth	Sequential Q4/Q3 E	Sequential Q3/Q2 A	Year over Year 3Q 09 A	Year over Year 4Q 09 E	Year over Year 2Q 09 A
Finance	-15.32%	2.40%	22.49%	23.83%	4.04%
Medical	4.32%	0.91%	4.86%	8.51%	2.80%
Aerospace	6.72%	-2.14%	4.64%	12.62%	2.18%
Retail/Wholesale	8.83%	0.29%	1.39%	3.69%	-0.93%
Computer and Tech	6.75%	2.87%	-5.98%	2.94%	-9.98%
Business Service	-1.50%	3.00%	-6.73%	-3.53%	-10.84%
Consumer Staples	-6.16%	-0.53%	-7.10%	-7.35%	-8.04%
Consumer Discretionary	4.68%	7.28%	-10.07%	-5.08%	-14.18%
Auto	-2.66%	11.99%	-11.94%	-0.79%	-30.44%
Conglomerates	4.73%	-0.78%	-16.29%	-9.24%	-17.47%
Industrial Products	0.26%	1.57%	-18.55%	-12.43%	-22.16%
Utilities	12.42%	10.93%	-18.59%	6.56%	-14.02%
Transportation	3.46%	4.63%	-19.93%	-10.20%	-21.46%
Construction	-3.16%	3.39%	-27.47%	-18.48%	-31.24%
Basic Materials	0.02%	5.31%	-28.79%	-3.39%	-34.50%
Oils and Energy	-4.80%	11.15%	-40.56%	-9.38%	-45.27%
S&P	2.56%	3.43%	-10.90%	1.50%	-15.30%

Annual Total Net Income Growth
•    Total S&P 500 Net Income in 2009 expected to be 4.7% below 2008 levels
•    Total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 23.2% in 2010, 17.3% further in 2011
•    Total earnings in 2010 to still be below 2007 levels
•    Data for 2011 is still thin, so take with a grain of salt
•    Staples, Medical and Business Services are the only sectors to see positive growth for 2009, although Finance is moving from a loss to a profit. Autos, Construction to see much smaller losses in 2009, move to profit in 2010

Annual Total Net Income Growth
EPS Growth	2008	2009	2010	2011
Business Service	14.27%	4.30%	14.19%	22.73%
Medical	9.12%	2.56%	9.07%	9.39%
Consumer Staples	-2.51%	1.19%	11.74%	7.60%
Utilities	5.84%	-0.96%	9.93%	10.51%
Retail/Wholesale	7.05%	-3.19%	11.51%	13.07%
Computer and Tech	9.82%	-5.28%	19.17%	3.20%
Consumer Discretionary	6.94%	-9.19%	10.98%	15.55%
Aerospace	13.29%	-16.60%	19.74%	7.19%
Transportation	3.72%	-32.12%	23.07%	19.07%
Conglomerates	-11.00%	-33.13%	-0.39%	22.06%
Industrial Products	7.49%	-36.93%	21.07%	-5.59%
Oils and Energy	20.41%	-56.96%	45.46%	23.83%
Basic Materials	-12.35%	-62.05%	90.64%	24.10%
Construction	+ to -	-91.41%	- to +	174.96%
Auto	+ to -	-93.84%	- to +	90.23%
Finance	+ to -	- to +	51.91%	48.00%
S&P	-22.70%	-4.72%	23.21%	17.31%

Annual Total Revenue Growth
•    Total S&P 500 Revenue in 2009 expected to be 9.4% below 2008 levels
•    Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 7.0% in 2010
•    Only 4 sectors to post positive revenue growth in '09; all but Finance expected to be positive in 2010
•    For 2009, revenues fall more than earnings; for 2010, earnings rise faster than sales - both mean big margin expansion
•    Energy, Autos, Materials and Construction see biggest revenue declines in 2009, but will see large increases in 2010.

Annual Total Revenue Growth
Sales Growth	2008	2009	2010
Finance	-22.57%	7.13%	-1.13%
Aerospace	2.26%	6.49%	1.92%
Medical	7.73%	4.89%	8.34%
Retail/Wholesale	6.20%	4.01%	5.23%
Computer and Tech	6.60%	-3.65%	5.91%
Utilities	11.81%	-4.17%	10.52%
Consumer Staples	1.74%	-8.91%	4.74%
Consumer Discretionary	5.22%	-9.47%	3.60%
Business Service	9.14%	-9.80%	4.08%
Conglomerates	6.32%	-14.08%	0.08%
Transportation	8.09%	-16.31%	7.00%
Industrial Products	10.76%	-16.57%	6.01%
Construction	-25.81%	-23.68%	9.91%
Auto	-8.23%	-25.24%	5.67%
Basic Materials	11.50%	-25.25%	12.37%
Oils and Energy	24.34%	-36.82%	23.10%
S&P	4.21%	-9.43%	6.97%

Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 down to 3.00, from 3.25
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2009
•    Four sectors seem more than 6 estimate increases for each cut
•    No sector seeing estimates cut on balance
•    Industrials, Autos seeing very large estimate increases
•    Business Service and Conglomerates lead; Retail, Staples and Tech also strong
•    Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates falls to 2.82 from 3.18
•    Total number of revisions (4 week total) down to 4,388 from 4,810 last week (-8.8%)
•    Increases down to 3,291 from 3,677 (10.5%), cuts down to 1,097 from 1,133 (3.2%)
•    Total Revisions activity past peak for this earnings season, will fall sharply over next few weeks

Analysts are responding to better-than-expected 3Q earnings by raising 2009 estimates almost across the board. Unlike the data presented above for the surprises, the revisions data is for all 500 firms in the index. Total revisions activity has picked up dramatically, and will continue to do so over the next week or two, but we are getting towards peak activity..

The broad increases in earnings estimates seems to reflect a much better short-term outlook for the economy. Note that some of the most cyclical areas such as Retailers, Materials and Autos are seeing a large preponderance of upward over downward earnings revisions, and that most of the firms in those sectors are seeing their consensus estimates increase.

On the other hand, the defensive Staples sector has a very high revisions ratio of 8.55, so it’s not just the cyclicals. Then again, given the great performance by the Staples on the surprise front, a strong estimate revisions performance is not surprising.

One industry that has seen some remarkable increases in their estimates for both this year and next is the Semiconductor Equipment industry, with firms like Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA-Tencor (KLAC) and Novellus (NVLS) all seeing no estimates cut and double-digit numbers of increases leading to very large percentage gains in their mean estimates. Those are what one might term new economy cyclicals. Many of the old economy cyclicals like Ford (F) and Cummins Engine (CMI) have also seen large estimate increases.

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2009
Sector	%Ch Curr Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Business Service	3.42	8	0	66	4	16.50	NM
Conglomerates	1.8	7	1	66	5	13.20	7.00
Retail/Wholesale	3.4	32	9	405	51	7.94	3.56
Consumer Staples	2.07	30	7	218	33	6.61	4.29
Computer and Tech	5.15	62	15	620	141	4.40	4.13
Consumer Discretionary	5.12	24	5	207	64	3.23	4.80
Industrial Products	12.27	16	6	116	38	3.05	2.67
Medical	3.39	31	11	347	117	2.97	2.82
Basic Materials	3.65	14	6	120	41	2.93	2.33
Auto	15.48	5	1	30	11	2.73	5.00
Aerospace	-0.74	6	4	88	35	2.51	1.50
Finance	3.86	54	23	530	235	2.26	2.35
Oils and Energy	1.32	27	14	291	180	1.62	1.93
Utilities	1.34	24	14	98	67	1.46	1.71
Construction	2.85	5	4	39	32	1.22	1.25
Transportation	0.02	5	4	50	43	1.16	1.25
S&P	3.47	350	124	3291	1097	3.00	2.82

Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
•    Revisions Ratio for full S&P 500 edges down to 1.98, from 2.09
•    Positive surprises translating to estimate increases for 2010, as well as 2009
•    Eclectic mix of strong sectors: Staples lead, followed by Industrials
•    Ratio of firms with rising estimates to falling mean estimates at 2.06, up from 2.05 last week
•    Total number of revisions (4 week total) down to 3,956 from 4,209 last week (-6.0%)
•    Increases down to 2,630 from 2,846 (-7.6%), cuts down to 1,326 from 1,363 (-2.7%)

The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
Sector	%Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks	# Firms Up	# Firms Down	# Ests Up	# Ests Down	Revisions Ratio	Firms up/down
Consumer Staples	1.84	30	8	191	39	4.90	3.75
Retail/Wholesale	3.02	36	8	335	70	4.79	4.50
Business Service	1.89	6	2	51	11	4.64	3.00
Industrial Products	5.24	14	7	110	30	3.67	2.00
Conglomerates	1.49	7	1	55	21	2.62	7.00
Computer and Tech	3.74	54	21	471	183	2.57	2.57
Consumer Discretionary	1.32	22	7	159	62	2.56	3.14
Basic Materials	-0.05	13	7	97	45	2.16	1.86
Medical	1.55	29	14	255	156	1.63	2.07
Auto	8.20	3	3	21	13	1.62	1.00
Oils and Energy	1.31	28	12	262	183	1.43	2.33
Finance	0.17	46	31	420	309	1.36	1.48
Transportation	0.47	5	4	37	29	1.28	1.25
Construction	0.01	6	5	37	32	1.16	1.20
Aerospace	-0.12	5	5	50	49	1.02	1.00
Utilities	-0.89	17	21	79	94	0.84	0.81
S&P	1.73	321	156	2630	1326	1.98	2.06

Total Income and Share
•    S&P500 expected to earn $574.1 billion in 2008, $707.3 billion in 2010
•    Excluding Financials, total net income expected to be down 19.3% in 2009
•    Energy Share of total earnings plunges to 10.8% in 2009 from 23.8% in 2008
•    Finance share of total earnings moves from deficit in 2008 to 11.8% in 2009, 14.7% in 2010
•    Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight)

Total Income and Share
Sector	Total Net Income $ 2008	Total Net Income $ 2009	Total Net Income $ 2010	% Total S&P Earn 2008	% Total S&P Earn 2009	% Total S&P Earn 2010	% Total S&P Mkt Cap
Computer and Tech	126147	119484	142392	20.94%	20.81%	20.13%	21.98%
Medical	84799	86970	94856	14.07%	15.15%	13.41%	10.77%
Finance	(24629)	67816	103022	-4.09%	11.81%	14.57%	14.65%
Oils and Energy	143589	61804	89900	23.83%	10.77%	12.71%	11.70%
Consumer Staples	54722	55370	61873	9.08%	9.64%	8.75%	8.64%
Retail/Wholesale	56510	54707	61004	9.38%	9.53%	8.62%	9.18%
Consumer Discretionary	34582	31404	34853	5.74%	5.47%	4.93%	5.19%
Utilities	30485	29537	31728	5.06%	5.15%	4.49%	3.68%
Conglomerates	32761	21906	21821	5.44%	3.82%	3.09%	3.62%
Aerospace	15635	13039	15613	2.59%	2.27%	2.21%	1.72%
Industrial Products	18591	11726	14196	3.09%	2.04%	2.01%	2.29%
Transportation	13966	9480	11668	2.32%	1.65%	1.65%	2.11%
Basic Materials	21489	8155	15546	3.57%	1.42%	2.20%	2.60%
Business Service	3202	3339	3813	0.53%	0.58%	0.54%	0.60%
Construction	(3094)	(266)	1131	-0.51%	-0.05%	0.16%	0.51%
Auto	(6225)	(384)	3901	-1.03%	-0.07%	0.55%	0.77%
S&P 500	602532	574088	707317	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%

P/E Ratios
•    S&P 500 trading at 17.5x 2009 earnings, or an earnings yield of 5.71%
•    Trading at 14.2x 2010, 12.1x 2011 earnings, or earnings yields of 7.04% and 8.26, respectively
•    Earnings Yields attractive relative to 10-year T-Note rate of 3.36%
•    Medical has lowest P/E based on 2009 earnings, Aerospace cheapest on 2010 earnings
•    Materials high 2009 P/E to fall dramatically in 2010

P/E Ratios
P/E	2008	2009	2010	2011
Basic Materials	12.1	32	16.8	13.5
Transportation	15.2	22.4	18.2	15.3
Finance	NM	21.7	14.3	9.6
Industrial Products	12.3	19.6	16.2	17.1
Oils and Energy	8.2	19	13.1	10.5
Computer and Tech	17.5	18.4	15.5	15
Business Service	18.7	17.9	15.7	12.8
S&P 500	16.6	17.5	14.2	12.1
Retail/Wholesale	16.3	16.8	15.1	13.3
Consumer Discretionary	15.1	16.6	14.9	12.9
Conglomerates	11.1	16.6	16.7	13.6
Consumer Staples	15.8	15.6	14	13
Aerospace	11	13.2	11	10.3
Utilities	12.1	12.5	11.6	10.8
Medical	12.7	12.4	11.4	10.4
Construction	NM	NM	44.9	16.3
Auto	NM	NM	19.8	10.4

Data in this report, unless stated otherwise, is through the close on Thursday 11/19/2009. Zacks Investment Research

When your cost of capital is 0% everything looks attractive.  (Kid Dynamite also Big Picture) Be wary when a private equity firm looks to go public.  (WSJ, Behind the Headlines) Using the Taylor Rule as a check on rate expectations.  (Accrued Interest) One overlooked downside to Fed policy is the dearth of opportunities for yield investors like insurance [...]

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 19, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Ford (F), CarMax (KMX), AutoNation (AN), Apartment Investors (AIV) and Equity Residential (EQR).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Wednesday’s Analyst Blog:

CPI Up on Cars, Energy

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose by 0.3%, a little bit hotter than the 0.2% that was expected. If one strips out volatile food and energy prices to get the core consumer price index, prices were up 0.2%, also one tick higher than the 0.1% expected.

A rise in energy prices was not unexpected. Heck, one only has to see what the price of crude oil and natural gas have done over the last month or so. For the month, the price of energy rose 1.5% overall. The rise was sharpest among energy commodities, like gasoline and heating oil, which rose by 1.9%. Energy services, like electricity rose a more moderate -- but still steep -- 0.9%.

The rise in core consumer prices was a bit more of a surprise. However, the rising prices were very narrow, with almost all of the increases due to higher prices for cars and trucks, both new and used. For the month, the prices of new cars were up 1.6% while the prices for used cars jumped by 3.4%. That is very good news for Ford (F) as well as indirectly for the U.S. taxpayer, since we are now major stockholders at both General Motors and Chrysler.

The increase for used cars is also beneficial for the car dealers like CarMax (KMX) and AutoNation (AN). The Cash for Clunkers program continues to reverberate through the economy, even though it ended over two months ago. Every car that was turned in under the program was destroyed (at least the engine was, other parts could be stripped and reused). This reduction in supply helped support prices of the remaining used cars. This is the third month in a row of sharply higher prices for used cars, coming on top of a 1.6% increase in September and a 1.9% increase in August. I suspect that this effect is likely to wear off in the near future.

On a year-over-year basis, the overall consumer price index is down 0.2%, while the core consumer price index is up 1.7%, both of which are historically very low. The huge decline in energy prices happened a year ago and is in the process of rolling off. Thus look for the headline consumer price index to start to outpace the core consumer price index in the months to come on a year-over-year basis.

The divergence could become very large. The reason is that a very large part of the index is for Shelter, and the biggest part of that is rent -- both the normal rent that is paid by people who do not own their own houses, and "owners equivalent rent" (OER) or what it would cost you to rent an identical house next door to where you are living now. OER is how the government measures housing prices for inflation; what happens to the actual price of houses is totally irrelevant when it comes to measuring inflation. Thus, measured inflation was very much under control, even as the price of houses were soaring during the housing bubble, and the CPI did not decline as the bubble was bursting.

Together, regular rent paid to landlords and OER make up over 30% of the total consumer price index, and almost 40% of the core consumer price index. The overall price of shelter was unchanged in October, the second month in a row it was unchanged. Regular rent fell by 0.1%, over the last three months it is down at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7%, and it is unchanged over the last six months.

Since most people own rather than rent where they live, OER has a much higher weight in the index (24.4% of the total index vs. 6.0%). It was unchanged on the month, is off by 0.3% over the last three months and up by just 0.2% over the last six months. However, if the reports from the big housing-oriented REIT’s like Apartment Investors (AIV) and Equity Residential (EQR) are to be believed, then the decline in regular rents is significantly understated.

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Zacks Investment Research

Autoliv (ALV) will enhance its vertical integration capability by acquiring the Occupant Protection Safety (OPS) assets from Michigan-based auto parts manufacturer, Delphi Corporation, formerly a subsidiary of General Motors (MTLQQ). Earlier this year, Delphi has announced its plan to exit from its OPS business in North America , Europe and Asia by the end of the [...]

(ALV) Autoliv to Acquire Assets From Delphi